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[lastpost] => 2809326 比特币周线展望：IBIT 和 MicroStrategy 守住关键支撑位（转） 1772066465 sunnyclare001
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BCA Research表示，投资者开始对美国的“避险资产”地位产生怀疑，而这可能对比特币构成利好。: I% J* T6 q3 e( K/ M, [: \
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该研究机构在最新给投资者的报告中指出，目前其整体投资组合保持防御性配置——减持股票、增持固定收益资产，并在股票投资中降低对美国2 M/ q3 a! K" x
/ m& D, r2 R% `, N! v0 V2 |- O市场的权重。原因在于，海外投资者正集体“回避”美国资产，担忧美国政策已从“贸易战”转向“资本战”。
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与此同时，BCA也首次将比特币纳入其研究覆盖范围，并将比特币的评级从“减持”上调至“中性”。今年2月，BCA曾出于市场情绪过于乐观的判断而) F! k( x6 E) v5 S$ r
7 G9 x% N3 S6 _0 D9 D5 O8 l6 U“短期看空”比特币。
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“在全球资金撤离美国资产的背景下，比特币有望成为受益者。”报告写道，“市场情绪已经从高点大幅回落。今年以来，活跃交易的比特币在整体已
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实现市值中的占比急剧下降。”+ M* w5 ]4 S) U% E6 I
9 G3 Q5 }9 b2 x0 C/ T8 u* N/ x3 ^ 报告还指出，比特币作为“数字黄金”，正越来越像实物黄金那样表现，在美国资产大规模抛售期间依旧保持坚挺。' _ H. e7 C C3 Q- ]9 b
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% c! w) M! j" i6 r/ X) R 根据Coin Metrics的数据，自4月3日——即特朗普总统宣布初始关税政策的第二天起——比特币已上涨约12%。同期，现货黄金上涨了8%，9 N, T m7 }! K7 ^8 K/ A
% Z3 S6 r. i9 u6 b. q而纳斯达克综合指数几乎持平。5 P( k# Y* e: [! O! ]% F
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BCA在报告中进一步指出：“虽然美国经济增长目前仍表现坚挺，但关税政策的模糊性，已导致企业资本支出意愿大幅下滑。”此外，“激烈的* ~2 Q% s9 ~6 o: h2 a; ^8 I
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利率波动也再度打击了住宅房地产市场。”5 q. ^' @6 C+ u2 W
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“尽管特朗普ZF在某些强硬言论上有所收敛，但企业仍迫切需要明确的政策信号，才能恢复投资。”报告写道，“若无法及时提供清晰政策，& U2 R) s" f0 N7 `# j: [4 r
$ P3 X6 J' g$ `' J4 D! D5 o将可能引发更为严重的经济衰退。”# [1 r a; C: i$ ?3 x7 m E6 a2 t
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