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[虚拟币交流]
比特币走势与黄金走势相似——分析师设定周期最高目标为 16 万至 18 万美元（转）
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比特币将在2025年中期进入略低于历史高点的盘整阶段，度过充满宏观和地缘ZZ动荡的动荡之年。2025年伊始，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普重新实施关税政策，扰乱了全球贸易关系，并给风险资产带来压力。随后，美国国债收益率上升，通胀压力与流动性紧缩相冲突，引发了人们对系统性脆弱性的担忧。最近，以色列和伊朗爆发直接冲突，加剧了金融市场的恐慌，促使投资者转向黄金等避险资产。 在此背景下，比特币保持坚挺，目前在10万美元上方盘整，此前曾在今年早些时候达到11.2万美元的峰值。尽管一些投资者担心全球不稳定因素会导致抛售压力加剧，但也有人认为，当前的结构表明比特币价格走强而非疲软。顶级分析师泰德·皮洛斯（Ted Pillows）认为，比特币的走势并未发生根本性变化。他的技术分析认为，比特币的走势仍在反映黄金的长期走势，并有望在未来几周再次突破。 由于通胀风险依然存在，对法币的担忧日益加剧，以及资本转向稀缺资产，许多人不再将比特币视为投机工具，而是将其视为一种宏观对冲工具。[url=]突破[/url]超过 112,000 美元可能会引发下一次爆炸性走势。 随着宏观压力的增大，比特币波动率飙升尽管上周未能突破11.2万美元的历史高点，但比特币仍坚守在10.3万美元上方。此次跌破导致比特币价格大幅回调6%，空头试图将价格压低至关键需求区间以下。然而，尽管宏观压力巨大，地缘ZZ风险不断升级，比特币的结构依然完好。以色列和伊朗之间的冲突给全球市场带来了冲击波，推高了石油和黄金等避险资产，而股市则出现波动。通常被视为数字黄金的比特币在混乱中意外展现出强势。 未来一周对比特币而言可能至关重要。如果紧张局势加剧，传统市场进一步下滑，比特币的走势将考验其作为宏观对冲工具的演变角色。投资者正在密切关注，在避险环境下，资本是否会继续流入比特币。 泰德·皮洛斯仍然保持乐观。他的[url=]技术分析[/url]这表明比特币的结构性变化并未发生。根据他的观点，BTC 正密切追踪黄金的历史突破模式，这意味着该数字资产目前只是在盘整，之后将迎来新一轮上涨。Pillow 的长期展望认为，比特币在周期顶峰时的目标价位将达到 16 万至 18 万美元。
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