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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 6 f4 c. M5 m. C1 Q8 v5 \  o
5 O7 g* Q/ w. J5 n# t* z$ m( u

5 |/ i9 T) Z) ~: a( n% U! f只跟踪一个联赛+ b. `, o+ j/ `! Y4 l; m' B, r5 S

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4 g9 R1 o( ~( a) M* R全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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& ~1 X8 x) |2 v9 m/ F6 J( q偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。" K* Z0 A/ j" @5 f, @8 o% x

* p; X5 G  I6 \# d( k3 o8 c: T方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）. L. r# o4 ]' l: E" w0 ?0 t
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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  W6 m7 f* o% P8 U2 Z" i就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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) T* K; W$ j/ S/ ~/ S1 o9 g1 ?当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目4 X* j9 }! X5 r* D

6 }- Z% O& o7 n5 t; j1 W2 H7 q: J
- ~' p8 G& W7 ]- w6 r$ n2 Y, P3 D! j; O" t+ r
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
1 [7 I9 M8 i- O& o3 {, r
5 Y/ e, D0 V. O/ e4 J而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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/ H9 J# r$ C  n; d但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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# W6 v. h5 T8 T8 K- P; {: N' y理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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/ b; i% ~1 a2 V! c; p/ O" s% q排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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+ Y" ^1 r! }( F& z8 D3 P8 v但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。3 d) z. ]! k1 {& t

# Z4 b, J; p- ^在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，/ T' s2 W7 {' b2 r; w
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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9 X# ]3 p. o; }# v: }$ F, r放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
' z+ T2 ?. V. r/ e& ~  Q* v2 Z: X  b1 B- Q/ e4 g3 E
就是回避了大的亏损，
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6 Y' a; V' D0 V$ W' h" `大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
3 A- m* w, g! z9 M3 V( E8 f  W2 N
* v! N. y4 L3 M- l  w7 e2 f回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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