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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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* u# c1 n) |& Z$ f9 `) B# }全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔& D/ T$ l2 d. j6 G
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。3 d( C/ r$ B: ?, r  e. R/ u

. x/ a9 R! D6 K7 L1 ]方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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( i, |7 R& T1 O/ U$ Y然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，% H. ?# E5 L1 E8 H9 C' l
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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8 z& X  ]3 S; b0 [& M* Z8 u7 O当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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  S' G- V6 G6 v0 B9 Z2 t+ n亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，' t) j! P7 H& N

& l* `7 C9 G: `* N" R; X. i而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，  z( a4 R) t: I4 {0 ~& U$ I
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。$ s. E) @# [; z2 s; e* a4 i) F$ R3 N# W, x

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" [5 d( w  t4 p; J9 V, p理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。  u8 H% P& Q) Y, g6 d9 G
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，9 X) Z% ?9 w% H
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。" a5 l0 M& M% O' c
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。& o& p5 `) d* y% ^2 }. X  V

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; d$ ?' X3 f' r% Q' s9 h常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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2 q1 S/ @9 ~* v! {放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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& F! L1 A) o) X; t2 E4 }% l6 P就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，, P& n$ e# j( j7 S5 ?3 x
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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