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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 9 L6 E/ v# e% Y7 {8 C
余勋也不例外、
* Y% ^" N* ^+ z0 T* ?7 t2 O其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
5 i5 w+ n% E4 i; K! b是保经济的重要决策！
. w c+ a! B' [5 V; T这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
. q4 J9 P, y( _# P! c低点26700-32400、
) G5 K& I% R# {反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 : y# j! e5 {6 I" h$ i$ h* {: F
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 / x e! Z5 i$ q
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
* M6 b: W3 v' c+ \: _涨幅就已回撤过半！ 6 Q8 R0 g* \6 L' j; N; t1 Q" @. [
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
& G: `% R) P2 n2 `: J6 l: ~不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
: e8 _0 _) ^5 M! g" A' E7 y其次、
6 H) w9 @' t' `5 k8 L缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 4 c0 Y0 ~1 F% e2 s2 m1 A
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
K7 i+ R0 f; C ]9 ]: N, T0 u2 V. f) s等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 * _" B! ^& [7 M# t% E' w& F
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
! K0 Q, Q3 K/ k$ S# ]! l9 R5 F但回到币圈、 1 l- i4 Z/ h# \3 a4 h" g
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 8 o2 Q3 l2 }4 {# S7 U2 i) j6 v
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 8 T! ^! q8 T7 z1 v" B, i
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 $ T; t) G" w0 y
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 " L- J+ _* ?! |) l. _
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 ' h+ w3 O3 d+ t5 N
对当前的底部、影响有限。
9 t2 d8 `* f/ x2 K9 C# z, O最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 5 Y9 r1 W- ?. A7 W s4 K
所以27000、即是
( x' F# K0 B6 v: f$ Y% ^; X* p去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 9 \/ V" U0 D" B; P+ b, W; k% s" z
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 $ L! V3 V m5 s6 s8 i
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
+ }( U: {) @+ n h4 L由此得出的结论是、
$ ?8 a+ {1 {( o) o" t! b加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
. ]" S+ B2 a; T |% o2 F点位不会出现太大偏离。 4 ?- y# b+ Y5 z6 h* y
综合以上、 9 r3 c% m/ T6 u$ ]2 ]" v& t% ?
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 % O1 X7 V0 V5 m6 V0 |- h% o* ~
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
1 z! x. O p2 O2 C( b那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
0 }7 n- m* y' m抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
$ A, S+ \- u- h那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
# u/ j% U* ^# F8 R' m即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
% G( Y' z8 r8 H! O% ]美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
% }5 H7 n2 h* K夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
9 u2 r6 [4 S0 B! G大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
5 o& x* U! A2 h; H8 ~% ]9 G5 K逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
( `; [" \+ ]) o$ A& l* Y高空需至31700-32000间布局、
: I! i2 Q) g: `) x反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
; e" b& J8 O0 ?' ^8 w# z得不偿失。
1 x' l, q( y; T6 y( Q8 s- B来源：金色财经 |
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