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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 $ [& Q$ H2 B9 `' d, U3 W& n8 D
余勋也不例外、 . I w7 P E4 ?* N& E3 i9 _& _
其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 3 c; ?) {5 v$ U* o
是保经济的重要决策！
7 C2 a7 R3 a+ {- n) _6 M这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 ; A5 \8 q# N( r& N! H/ p
低点26700-32400、 6 `" ~' `( k8 _) M3 M4 ]
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 6 e7 Q e1 b* L% Q& y
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 * m$ h/ y# `* s. {, ?4 X' ?+ W
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
5 b$ o6 i& x. V涨幅就已回撤过半！ - F& C5 m1 a4 {9 l7 ^, B% n
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 / l% V9 f# k- t
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ( G2 `5 A/ p9 ?+ Q8 K4 r7 X) z. E. U$ V" U
其次、 " D. V* R% p8 e! y
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 3 b% F. ]8 ~6 h5 m
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 3 C+ Z. T/ E* z) {* m2 V
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 J# d( c- R+ q- K( i8 D ]- e/ c
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 . O" u1 c8 {9 V" h8 H1 W- o* |0 Q
但回到币圈、 7 H" y. r4 t9 n/ q6 C) y# l
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
# c# C7 m3 A$ N在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
0 ~, F6 J: g' \, I z! e G# N而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
) K4 u& b& D& Z( D( u个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 4 l9 X' S4 o6 W; F Z) x( z
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 7 I! [$ t* _7 Q/ P/ u
对当前的底部、影响有限。 2 L j* x( u9 s" H( s
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
9 @5 J Q5 Q ~+ q8 _& k所以27000、即是 % u( i8 t, W! ?3 f* P
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 3 e4 K$ M) a5 R6 X
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 & {5 F( M; _) L
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。 {# \9 W, {% Y! Z2 x3 r0 [
由此得出的结论是、 # `0 T$ n+ Q( T E3 F0 q
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
6 j2 K( P& N; C$ D; e8 W点位不会出现太大偏离。 3 c Y1 g/ N1 H0 g" n
综合以上、 . ~% P" x, c8 v2 ~4 Z: l1 f
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 8 `& Y$ G/ l7 R" S5 u
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
9 q: h9 o, M1 L# S; a5 k那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ; Z5 S' [# v8 p5 e; E9 g
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 9 i) u8 S2 q/ B; \" {
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 8 {3 \# P' i/ b) G
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 8 L# k2 d. u3 O' ~
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 4 b% J! C @& A9 _. W
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 0 g5 ?8 H3 N* H* Z
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
2 T: V" Y) ?- V6 v逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
. t) Y1 I( ~0 ^7 u3 X7 t% }高空需至31700-32000间布局、 1 Z, h! F8 ^, o
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
0 ?) o8 S6 d* O得不偿失。
( L) p. d7 @9 m3 ~" O来源：金色财经 |
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