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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘, D9 ^" C2 l; @0 e
! [' x& i& ^/ C7 t
平手中水,主队有利
3 m6 t# t* k+ `4 t" V: C6 t 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
8 }1 b# G- Q( S( w0 R; u4 G 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
$ i7 \7 \6 _7 k% o) O; p 英超主队+ B+ i: L+ g9 A- U1 B1 ^
胜:13场 48%% K; W0 x( i) t& I! W
平:5场 17%: E4 y3 Q8 N- r2 O/ I3 m9 b
负:9场 35%( z6 G; M+ Y' h' E+ Y
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
2 z- P/ B5 T3 c* G8 p @$ @+ U - N* K& \4 w: z4 r8 ]
一、初盘阶段1 `0 W4 G+ t* n2 y4 D
具体到水位如下:6 \0 u! U! U- S0 ^0 ?
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负% Z" z c6 B+ l+ W! t
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负8 @5 |7 z! {4 ]2 c/ D
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负5 V% b; q; z* I" ]
) ?) r% Y; @6 V3 ^$ Y' X
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
^! A8 j) M+ O P7 L) t' E$ P 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
& z# i. n3 Q' W1 m 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
2 k; Z. |. O9 ]; q ( \2 E2 \% E1 z" j+ a
二、临场阶段9 y: ~& u# D2 A* v; f3 E* ^
2 l$ H, M, x5 h f1 u 具体到变盘和水位如下:! R$ v# `! x9 D% b# l2 z$ k+ ^
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
a8 B# m0 d4 I+ l$ \8 L 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
8 J1 N1 ]( R S6 p4 g- t! d' O$ B ' }1 n1 K/ }5 w3 G0 E: g1 e% q) t
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
5 q, s3 C+ Y: T% W* B. v* o1 V; L 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:/ k4 U$ a* I& g7 G6 V) i
8 q+ B/ k! Q+ `
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿; R2 Y; i# }9 _% m- z7 f
初盘:0.82平手1.04
4 s$ F2 M$ \2 z# H5 K: [ 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
3 }7 s% J& e( j! O4 |/ c5 {+ I( p
3 j8 e- h j Q( q# Z, F: B1 C: B 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
: u" O4 o) }& h2 { 初盘:0.76平手1.10
4 x0 y' m. E/ @' D6 R$ @0 r- i* ~+ Y2 l 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91) B. e4 y" K# e' x- H$ T$ W% l( M
( l" N- a9 Y0 p( K8 r. _# i
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
+ }; D- ^: x4 d3 b( g/ C( m 初盘:0.82平手1.049 s8 e" `8 F7 {6 ]7 k
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98+ h- \4 y7 R7 \
4 W/ q. ^* o# J @6 [4 { 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
/ G3 u+ t, m5 e4 \ 初盘:0.88平手0.98. w+ ]+ |6 L5 N! M, p5 [' T! t
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
5 \$ |- s1 m5 c# P: _ 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。* L6 ~( m7 w0 b# ]
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
6 ^- k6 t8 @$ G3 j; v 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。9 g% U! P1 f; {6 o+ b9 y4 W( m
2 D! a, _ I' O( b& Y 三、球队表现
3 n: H2 N( |& I7 W2 G3 z
* F+ n" u* U' z' ~& L n- n 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。, d, ?5 {+ U, z* K
/ v( J; i" g0 `0 _/ x- W
四、投注要点1 {2 G7 R; ~3 H+ j, I$ u$ N5 j- L/ \
要点1:平手中水、主多不败' f, \5 t2 \$ i# ~' q+ K) K
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
. D* q G q2 ^ 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
& U% _+ O @5 l& F# T+ |" P 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大& Z7 p! s6 }- V8 `! V7 y7 b
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
0 \: W! [, h @+ v) t/ k9 p 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
) J- D) B, r L5 |+ z5 l& y7 a& P2 {, C/ m7 l 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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