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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘/ S& U# c$ c& y. K5 u" e8 Y: E& Y
     / @6 E2 E1 L; L* v& E
     平手中水,主队有利
- M8 A  G) x9 W     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。9 Z$ k' D; A5 m
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:) {% B! m1 C6 D* m0 W8 k
     英超主队2 q0 F+ X, k8 I. b3 u
     胜:13场 48%- l# B6 |) h; |. b$ ^( I
     平:5场 17%
$ _1 m* U) Y; q  m4 _8 k7 J     负:9场 35%
4 I4 W* K0 T( O+ D: X) Y7 r     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
7 G& U( U2 u/ {, o, C4 W     * a, o; I# v& w0 {; x
     一、初盘阶段! z# R( k& K' A2 M/ U
     具体到水位如下:
% O& [) i" Q/ d& f* b7 k     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负% U* f( H/ m" W
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负& w" N3 K5 f" d" R" p2 |- s0 N
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
; C% x% \5 a! \3 u2 f5 c! n6 u     
4 x. e8 J; S5 Z# n5 u     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
3 ~* M: Q; b! n3 n+ C2 Z& |     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。% K3 s" R8 \6 p0 P4 l3 \
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
" s0 o: ^6 F% b     
6 b9 c4 ^  ]/ _/ l     二、临场阶段' b( n& ?* }6 M0 b1 r4 q) Y6 u7 S
     
( l: L3 J' n! s; ]     具体到变盘和水位如下:2 e8 O! g% H) R" b' i* f  Z0 B
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
& ~& t+ s+ T& S! A' m+ {     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负9 j- _" X5 j5 `+ c* {: Q/ @' ~1 S
     & t/ b/ d7 e' }) v* t! F
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
5 n" w: x8 v& P6 F  I  s     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
" e/ f4 l: H9 k" F: Q     / x; d" r; P& R' n3 D0 t2 {$ X( u
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿( u% ]" C! h- @: b( Y4 ~( m3 G
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
: Y* Z% ?  \( ^0 M4 r# z: {     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
8 ^1 O3 T+ k0 r) Q8 Y' p, s- e     
( z! V8 W0 g% @$ P, u) Q0 m     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
" q3 \! \2 |; N. R     初盘:0.76平手1.10. L& q& `4 s) u; i. z3 q! u
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
3 r8 t2 `( R$ p  R     * s$ A. n1 ?, q- q" t- H4 T
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技2 q3 Z" J- `* R8 o4 f1 A
     初盘:0.82平手1.040 r$ S6 K* u& Q
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98$ h( a; [. w, g1 D9 l5 `
     
$ K/ x  N6 d/ `) y: i     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
1 y# D# B2 D5 I5 l7 k! F* C; a" \     初盘:0.88平手0.98
6 X2 g8 @4 S* ]2 g" J. h) a4 O: _     终盘:1.12平/半0.745 Z: s! ]% \. e# C" ]! X, a
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
  @8 M4 P. |! P- C- l( ~     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
$ d9 E) y9 V8 E$ H1 ?! E2 O, z     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
; v3 m% I$ U/ j- O0 k8 |3 O7 i3 U     
5 ~9 s$ H8 R' A8 \( g     三、球队表现4 {8 t& c. G8 z5 f8 V
     / L, d' D* Y' e) }3 n2 d4 D- D
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。9 O5 n) c. ~) K2 t/ O- L
     4 k2 g2 F( d/ s2 d- k1 D! J; Y7 Y
     四、投注要点
9 Y" h6 r7 g. U" l     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
; A0 Y9 d$ H6 {# g     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
/ Q$ {2 h6 E. d+ ~     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败* t9 F! ^" j  p: A- M9 r+ `
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
; B& v1 C  n* c3 f0 N; D. k     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
. b( X; z/ {0 m/ q! m0 w     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
, p4 o' R( H8 l+ F4 h5 ?, ~. X     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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