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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
8 ?9 E4 C3 L+ O4 I( N     ' l6 O, n9 E5 o% B: n
     平手中水,主队有利
. c2 y3 h) W0 y     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
: H6 @, R) L2 l8 l( N8 I9 M) v' K     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
+ R5 |1 N  I. F# f, v1 P     英超主队
. F6 n0 w6 f  l+ d! [, x     胜:13场 48%3 t( @) V5 ~' s
     平:5场 17%/ u4 l5 U4 ]1 W5 M$ `7 [) W& v
     负:9场 35%% p3 M" Z- m5 N& j' r/ U( o/ \  V
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
. B1 s9 y$ M: |4 \5 H     2 c6 w2 q1 O  p9 [% v& ~+ r7 R% L
     一、初盘阶段
  W7 Z. Z: Y) A  G4 x     具体到水位如下:2 T$ F' m6 b: ], P( M) V
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负# v8 r# T7 F" i7 Q
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
9 _* ]- x4 m$ T7 }/ u     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
% N$ e/ P0 v' @7 K     & B" X3 T* S/ Y& U6 v  E4 Y
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
" `0 j) q  P, z/ _9 I, B     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
0 r6 P0 N! n( {  X8 ?! a     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
" K$ u' e: g. N" A" O! T4 ^     ; j& q6 `$ g( U4 ?) ]
     二、临场阶段) Y6 Z' }5 C$ E: B2 Q$ t
     . z6 F1 w+ o0 B2 @0 M' Z
     具体到变盘和水位如下:8 J, B; ~  e9 g3 l  N9 |% m
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
) r; i; l4 V  w1 f( i3 m: g( U* j     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负2 B/ V9 E! {0 ~# a# W; O
     
0 R- [( D/ l3 C3 r4 e     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。$ m& v! t$ q' d. s
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:6 h' z, y" c3 C: J. e' f0 n+ V; i
     * z. G: d7 K) Y% m4 H
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿8 |1 y3 @, i& O. }/ C
     初盘:0.82平手1.04& v6 k; a9 f8 z' ^. p* E
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
2 F. \1 o! E! C     1 R6 c  `" d0 x
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
/ _  `, T6 f8 L/ E     初盘:0.76平手1.10# d; Q# Y* k" v5 N& R9 G
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
7 x/ G# G& T  \* ?     
1 b0 D' j4 ?' @3 A0 M6 X# x$ N2 t2 X     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
0 T" Q- Q5 l" b8 B5 M6 [# y     初盘:0.82平手1.04
; p  V5 ?/ \. Y% E5 `     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98/ I7 S# s4 G& U+ [  T) c
     
/ a8 y+ k) f' Q7 H9 ?     伯恩利2-1西汉姆7 G, C. {, j+ s) v
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
- ~9 g& w: c* W* z- I( X9 Z8 |# @     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
: J3 A3 I& @3 d  O     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
& T! g5 i7 W$ T. l     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。2 i: W; n5 j' h" g+ y+ S
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。) D$ |# E2 y( y; s9 [
     + R6 Z4 `8 @& k4 D$ {/ E
     三、球队表现7 {% u0 |- ]9 Q0 z& h
       x/ x/ D. F" l$ Z" _- T1 F! s
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。% t9 \% }( f) I9 m) ~9 E) j  e
     
& m; p: l3 N. m* m% J! D" w: g     四、投注要点
( L) S( ]$ k' K% n2 X7 n     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
% u  n2 J/ A# m. L+ }9 N& x     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
* u" V% M! Y) H9 b7 l     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败1 W; h/ j9 e. a1 s
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
& M* _$ i3 d, k( r3 G1 d& ^% V- C' G     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任  u8 Y$ H" F6 ?* r& S7 s
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
8 O: l" v# c+ m5 p( ^! g/ m     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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