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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
% T$ d/ w, m# b9 W' Y8 E2 S" g& a; U! v0 h+ g; N
, I, l$ q+ r) G7 T0 v* Q西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率' k+ e1 ]3 {, g7 i
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:* g7 a* I* a$ C9 U& q! q9 ~% V4 s q
+ B. k- o/ c" c) x" B+ `
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
4 [9 i9 {/ \9 ]
) ^# J9 w9 s( y很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?; J& J5 f( B; k, Z% ^1 e- J
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)+ E4 g- r4 _+ e K4 X+ o* S
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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1 C, K3 C$ y, P9 L& r( D盈利可能性% j: \' j4 l7 _# {8 Z& O C0 g
; ^* T: B( \1 l对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
6 |+ w+ k: l$ W0 c
8 W' v' { P- h$ z! g2 W增值
6 U6 y( Y! {7 k- \- {2 A6 }5 d
) |* S5 M0 @2 M6 i" L/ l" G# K8 |许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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2 z' w$ p5 B8 M; {. S' \你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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4 L( S* t; k; V- Pa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
5 J6 |( H0 i2 ~, ~. M! }8 D! [- N( G" U3 @# X7 }
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么: ]" A9 @# q; Y5 t8 P: Q; y
/ `6 Z: ?, i+ R# t$ Z
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
* I7 \8 |% v3 \9 o60%的机会你会一无所有
5 F+ Z2 [; c1 B9 e6 O @预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 1 h9 P% n( n1 T. y, h
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。" c. H' l+ ]% k' B
8 C' G& r/ x6 p6 o8 o" j5 U4 G; f增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注# f- ~- e' }3 l# U
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。/ K+ V [ [% t1 ?6 |
' ?5 n8 p6 u7 L) t1 B! S. [公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)0 g+ L7 _- v) z7 A. {" ^
9 e% z" X- |/ j5 A
A=博彩资金
- a' B# T M& w9 M. g& Z# WP=获胜机会( X7 d8 c5 ]/ m" H
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)9 ^, e% A: m( w9 O% U! p- Q3 e
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。$ u' q7 y0 L! `8 w; N6 q
9 K) S/ ^! T+ e% R y1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)' o1 z; `. u/ b7 W" v: H0 ]
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)2 W; W/ O4 G: K% X# C7 l5 N
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A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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+ P. f+ U5 ]8 A8 J' y6 _2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1 {2 {: j& `, @0 }8 R8 ^
. l; r' ?! k% u$ V结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去% X1 O+ b. Z2 B5 V% x) c- n
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)! O# ~5 ]' `( b6 o$ U7 N; I" ^
; Z( z% U- |, ?5 A! V. ]1 j: ]
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)0 H# Q2 H+ Y. F$ k6 u
# {* [; p" B" j ?" h" bA= -0.2
) Z# q; l0 F7 [& K+ K6 f2 r4 P7 V' ^
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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