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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率; a n: q9 Z g' ~
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:- l. r2 D: `: ?/ b2 s2 c: _( `
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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& `4 \3 v4 A/ l4 [1 E很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?; O a X$ Y5 @) D1 ^! Q& ?
/ g- }* V% t9 a; z/ q3 ]+ B' l答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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" Q9 \/ O2 X- Z& a2 b对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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5 s3 O+ o; [4 x! I3 r增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。3 ^9 L3 s" v k
( }5 o: m# ? j/ w' @' q( B你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 + B" |$ }* s/ X i* z
% j4 C: a0 F: Q) n; T正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么- U* j+ N; N. a4 i% m2 s& k' q- u# U
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
: C2 U2 u' i% G5 X; a" I60%的机会你会一无所有% S6 C$ d3 s9 k$ s E2 J5 x
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# `7 B7 m3 a2 B" \0 E2 A# L由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。) E& \2 D- j/ W+ m- w* k
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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# o% z) n$ w! w4 l. F5 C( V基于增值的投注
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; T( o$ d1 {6 G7 p凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。0 y, K# q t) o' _8 q8 L
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)$ z3 D) g2 F6 \' C
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A=博彩资金; B7 T/ H% W7 t ^7 C
P=获胜机会( M8 W* N$ L& w0 F* m/ A
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)+ i3 V/ l/ k) f, w8 x
4 i8 O& K7 {( c首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)3 V( H; G' v1 E7 R8 o C
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A=0+ ] q; C! e& U. \; S' V! E
& e% O# s8 ~7 b5 G" e6 Q结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)5 Z8 x* Z. I. h6 `* J# y# o
+ _3 J3 n1 w3 D+ u- N( l) {
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)! O4 L# N8 s2 b0 u& R/ S! }: |
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A=0.1' z$ x( Q6 E. A: I" |* f
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去% G1 W/ K$ l* I6 w Q* g
3 I% H) g4 m& |. q4 b5 k6 \+ W3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)' W9 b3 u7 ?8 v2 \1 V) i% T
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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4 j7 P- R2 M* C5 |; jA= -0.2 + V) ]; } Y' H' B$ \0 A- q& e
* Y A2 A8 f' ~结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好7 a# Y5 H, Z9 U; O+ X
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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