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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 + ]; |1 f! x" u. }- }3 F+ C1 _
余勋也不例外、
! E# j; K: m2 m( L) e其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
6 W( V2 ~9 \+ @# a3 d( w是保经济的重要决策！
0 W6 i& c2 K, N# @) F, d5 i这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 + Q0 S4 G3 a7 M7 g8 X' ]! j
低点26700-32400、 / A# c: Q0 o7 I5 k- o( d
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
! N- f; K5 w8 u# G; ^3 f# S: i. h) W但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 3 x* U! }7 W' f6 U) D
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 & d. T2 {& c9 [7 p: M6 V1 \( H# w
涨幅就已回撤过半！
; m( Z' v$ U* g所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
( `8 O- {4 g* o3 a. [9 @不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
. p; s3 r9 @5 ~+ }% o" @其次、
& g Z; L- l, y4 }$ V6 p3 z缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 5 N9 J4 O$ e- V2 J2 e' c6 A
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 4 c. U/ a% o( {6 D
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 6 Z/ ?1 A4 o. A) X: K
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
: F" T" I$ o: K" Z但回到币圈、
" V" \+ L# h1 i& |8 T; j去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
: R" o; g% A2 w7 O3 B( g" T" }8 s在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
* p! { Z& D3 ]0 E. s! o" n# c0 X而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
2 R( F5 I Q. g9 ~9 \个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、 . P. o5 ?3 {$ X5 }; ]
缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
# [* a0 d5 V1 A9 O9 Q1 R$ e" Y对当前的底部、影响有限。
# s2 m+ u) W n' l- r4 X最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 % ]# Y3 B& Q7 U6 ^5 ?* \# n
所以27000、即是 4 R- o S9 q6 Q* {, P, Z
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） $ v9 P! b* @8 G; i1 Y, a
同时还是去年放水初期低点、
+ d+ E- \7 I) K1 J5 C! b也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
( J9 n5 m& r& X5 R由此得出的结论是、 1 N* C& i4 d2 ^( N: J$ T
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
# @* n& H& X8 Z8 G点位不会出现太大偏离。
$ h' P0 G7 F1 q: t1 X综合以上、 " t0 M5 l+ I& b% l4 K. j* a
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 2 A ?5 L/ h) m. E5 m
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
" `& ?0 I4 d9 V那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ; z# {& r V5 N6 W3 |2 S* d
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 2 n# B" d" J. z" V8 ]7 P
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
% g8 L' c/ K9 _% k; p即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 8 M& I- H( q% }5 m' Z
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
- i$ c! B/ P8 w. ]( E: ` D" {. x0 L夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 ( |+ L* k5 D) I
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
2 u% Y/ |6 T! o& ^逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 ( l# E# K% n3 B1 L' M- M
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 ; b6 y& g- ]4 D1 p* |4 L7 O
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 3 M% ^% I+ a. A) \' [
得不偿失。
9 t1 j7 u4 h. S5 F V来源：金色财经 |
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