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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘/ q; K. _" W+ W) t! t+ h
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平手中水,主队有利
' }. P( P- W, ^6 S! { F 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
6 E1 G& X* V" w V 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
! W( |2 _: j0 L. B 英超主队* e3 N% ^. q4 a% f
胜:13场 48%
- O; F" M; a+ [8 r! I+ u* J6 ] 平:5场 17%
: G7 {' F) X0 Y" d% a6 ]4 D 负:9场 35%; d: r8 g2 n+ K( j3 z
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。& m7 l7 ^* `: Y. G% e8 _/ W/ L
" G( W! x. L4 P6 y' N( s2 k 一、初盘阶段
* x# a# N& N+ C1 G/ n$ r! [ 具体到水位如下:
# K: \, D% {6 X/ v/ t1 ]' ~ 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负* R- R3 E; c6 {+ p3 S
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负% ~' N4 k& f; M6 n
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负1 V7 `, H' M3 Z6 B) g
! d, [, `# Y. U3 \; C) U3 H1 o
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。8 E7 k0 [# R7 v' s2 W1 L
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。3 a; e2 X; V: x# l6 U) t& f2 J% Z5 {
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。, j$ ^1 Z0 W! o5 z
. K( o- l% U0 B) A2 T. b" ^$ G 二、临场阶段
2 T7 z( a3 X1 d0 E0 I- @ 2 d. s7 P, g& ]9 b8 w
具体到变盘和水位如下:
1 _% @9 f/ `$ {/ Q 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
1 F6 T! h$ t0 i3 H5 D 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
/ F% g9 J! n, m# i& o - l F+ \2 `: M4 t6 K
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
0 ~! L5 i1 _3 t6 L# F 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
$ Z* J# k! t9 R, d' o ) J, [/ I/ Y k, B+ O b
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
! a) J; ^- m( @ 初盘:0.82平手1.04- b; y+ n) b( ^* S7 y: G
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
# O4 K0 U7 p; q$ a
p* ~- C1 @" G( X/ y$ t; Q7 T, Y 朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
' B' t$ p/ a3 e0 `( P7 ]4 C/ z$ n 初盘:0.76平手1.10( Q0 R* a% G/ i& k& Z; f
终盘:0.95平手/半球0.919 K2 W3 v! C- Q, }" U
* e6 V: E; y* F 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
. O; l- x3 I! n# ^9 l( H 初盘:0.82平手1.041 R9 u: l9 _# d
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
, M' l8 Q6 e6 J" J
' I- O \5 D$ c+ b 伯恩利2-1西汉姆( s) P! `5 G+ m9 L4 E
初盘:0.88平手0.987 D5 g/ I/ O( P" q" g
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
" M! k; i4 i8 Z5 A) u5 N3 U 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。# R% c- ?6 v4 N
提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。) e' i; p! h& e; S
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
7 X. | M5 i/ j8 _( Y0 d* P/ A " g2 Z7 s" z, H" O! y
三、球队表现
0 r1 z" D$ L0 c# H; i) C
y1 i5 X8 i2 i0 r! E, W6 C# U 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。5 @9 W; u: X' {; z
( s% `. `( M k 四、投注要点
8 @5 m0 c/ ~8 u' T" g 要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 s1 U. h5 d3 Y5 W
要点2:平手降盘、走两头0 b/ w4 \. j& U- R2 r1 T! _
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败) j! V, T3 z8 W- W1 i, _. `! v* a
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
& J8 `3 Z# h2 l8 n: s( X+ G 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任+ P* w6 Q! l2 g1 L) |( y2 S
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大% n6 f% L* @1 y( T8 W
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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