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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘5 ^2 g4 y: g( M& D" h- _' ~
       U& x8 C. \& m3 |" l. K" J" t% u
     平手中水,主队有利
5 b! q7 E4 ^: W; \5 A. o; P8 S     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。3 p, x+ T7 U7 L, l& ~: b3 v+ M' a
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:% l# T. R; u/ m
     英超主队
4 s* C2 \" R( l6 c& [  A% B5 W     胜:13场 48%& n3 N- w- J- ]4 R2 ?" n" m! h
     平:5场 17%
/ v, R/ S, i6 P2 w2 j7 g     负:9场 35%$ |( s6 d* f. m! N4 {2 }
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。" l3 R0 @. _, U! q7 w
     & j) c' X8 s% K+ J6 O. W; H! _
     一、初盘阶段5 k/ N7 ~# f$ G
     具体到水位如下:9 o! D' f9 j; o! I8 w6 K
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
1 g8 e, W4 s, V5 {     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负# }# C2 N, z3 x6 V
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负$ \* y3 Z/ }& N$ W
     4 R; g. J) l$ {4 k' S5 O
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。3 U4 ^& }0 A' ~0 ]6 g; t5 z# S: Z. k8 n
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
; }6 L2 x. [! g% w0 V     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。2 @3 |1 y1 [' V+ c  G) J% d
     
7 K; \2 D$ z+ T3 H: \  z     二、临场阶段
$ u: r! J& B. T# |& o. m- }     ; ~: E2 z6 I2 O/ p
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
$ C1 F( S) E6 }     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负5 @! K# a% r% ~: u
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负" ^% ]. S' z- y2 b' ]
     ! o5 \5 `) s* L1 i8 }2 }5 y
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
- \, @; v5 i/ ]$ F& W* H! a; l     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
! S/ b2 G+ M. P. t+ O     
/ X7 |  }- z, Q' c! j     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿+ O1 q" G: `. C- l1 V0 M% f
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 i- w6 Z" N, A     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85& t! K4 }+ Q( R+ V8 T' R. t! a
     3 C5 J- n( a, K2 Q
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆1 s; U' P8 G/ P) {- h
     初盘:0.76平手1.10) `( _- E( G' R4 A5 V7 ?
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
' j; P& P9 m/ z+ A     
6 [& I0 f0 J6 S. Q# G, w! R     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技8 D5 ?4 ?. `- \; a/ ^% {. b! n
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
0 |0 g* ^7 c4 F8 V  W1 m     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
; l4 I' O) r: }! o     
6 E- ?( M, {5 W% `     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
$ t8 z- U7 ]* i% n" d     初盘:0.88平手0.98
/ Z$ D. c" T+ q     终盘:1.12平/半0.746 N; v) s. E9 o  q5 c2 ^2 B
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
: @4 p' G6 ~2 L! f3 s6 P/ p     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
2 E' U0 X2 b/ h5 n' E2 F     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。$ o, n9 Y% m+ p& q
     
# M( {2 N4 @9 ?; t* s" c/ D( W4 Q     三、球队表现
5 G" n% }% }# ?% U- ~       @- O5 X7 E! B  f
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
7 V' |& R/ O# a- Q; E5 [     
3 ?# f- e+ s/ l0 E: n/ O, X     四、投注要点8 b& [% Z3 ]: X" ~+ f" B$ D
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败8 t( W2 f" i+ j5 l
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
6 J% S* b4 o% @; R* g5 x8 k. W     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
3 [1 k! g: x5 k" W     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
+ o3 Z! J# I" d% e8 g! r3 @     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
" ~* V2 o; P3 {$ j, H, f     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大5 J. L0 s- F* E8 C/ @3 M
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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