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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ W' |+ |' s& x7 e1 O' \
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: d6 v/ [( ]- T3 v8 t西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:0 H4 c0 U( N  P( t; s2 z

6 [0 O0 {$ Q2 L  i皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% ) q' J4 w( d0 P5 Z! ?* e
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?5 q! k' k1 n- z% ]- R. {: g

! z  @+ t0 g( V! v" p+ Q( X/ H答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)2 r4 H' m5 F  q: q, r7 d

' R7 ]9 V. z9 n# B0 F: n7 V6 g+ x6 b0 e- S, v- B7 G
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?; `* p! h; r: x2 z( ~& q8 I
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盈利可能性- \4 i# H7 m# h4 ^

1 l) {+ C4 l7 V4 c$ ~对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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& t1 g( c: |3 \增值" b5 ^4 I; q1 A' E

4 B  \, ~0 v1 k5 P& |  p1 i许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。$ }+ V3 I3 x1 `. l1 y

9 @( ?4 {! O& o- \9 {: ^- ?你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?9 e. F8 o1 h8 }, l
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 4 C# k6 C$ ?+ ]' E

+ @: K  B" g- ^: U$ e, d正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 }" V% Y- q# o  P
60%的机会你会一无所有
1 V/ X+ [! ]1 H. j* L" f0 Q% h预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0   ]- \* Q' F/ J" _: v# d. l
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。- P1 @3 j" Z1 r* y& ]6 v0 U
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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8 j" O7 e* t) O% ~$ M3 w基于增值的投注
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6 ^) ~9 `4 q, X" m凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。! Q0 K$ F, f* ?9 d  n

4 T% _1 s0 ^4 a2 N, C9 I% U公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)8 |- q) \5 t# R" m, W- ^

2 |. Y5 g0 [, Y- k5 [3 ?A=博彩资金
! P; w3 V& `6 l2 X8 \& a. m, IP=获胜机会$ ]# ]- _2 s% u5 F( U9 z
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)$ s# x$ Q) W3 k) e) X5 \* b

, ]# v1 Z% O$ U, f9 PA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=05 O( L# b5 N( Z5 Q' n9 D
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)4 r& X2 Z! f2 C! A# {

9 P) r9 Q+ Q9 V1 y. aA=0.1/ ?( v/ g5 e; M9 p9 Y0 Y7 f' N. `
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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2 J2 d. I( T/ ~7 W3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)9 k, p. L6 W, M5 E9 _& r

' c. |! ]" k- T% F8 k. l2 hA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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6 E' d8 M, u' y. f* ?A= -0.2   U+ I/ l" H% |3 ~1 }+ z( V

9 }6 t" J1 S# `! S结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好& m5 A$ S. E" L

1 }( R. n  Z* H5 _  e5 s第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
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