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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘6 K$ h# r+ g/ M1 X0 p
1 L& v1 j5 _: ?5 m& K$ [3 F3 |& A2 o
平手中水,主队有利( {4 q# U: @+ J2 i
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。/ v% b' J. A# M+ L( y* g% {% {
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:+ N9 Z5 e' n: q9 c! f& v
英超主队9 ]) x- w7 V/ ^' Z/ k
胜:13场 48%5 d9 e: `3 l$ h0 m
平:5场 17%
( |0 k1 ^( a, ?- z! M 负:9场 35%
4 B' }' ?/ f3 m+ f) ]7 U 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
9 ^. m% u* z# P2 H$ [ ! h( s/ @6 m2 X. X P9 a& b/ R
一、初盘阶段
4 J S: i$ a: o& K j 具体到水位如下:0 r+ S, _% B* M4 v4 Z. |
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负5 A9 X/ \- J7 C# o4 H4 M
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负' n2 c- J4 v# w1 ~
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负3 j$ u1 r, N ~4 j) N8 W$ B
8 r. r1 W* _ y( A. C1 E
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
m# w9 S/ _) F6 f! y3 P 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。% @/ r5 k' p- A" f* o4 }6 R% V
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
% x! d$ K* r# }* n+ n ) M* o8 m% [# _& R, F
二、临场阶段
/ {# b0 Z% W4 v/ T3 Y
& {- {0 n }# A" m% f 具体到变盘和水位如下:) Q9 T; V( D. S" k
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负1 z5 Z- {" e7 u+ \
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
: W; u' [8 @, J; R( o N2 L
7 @/ n& ?3 P3 k I 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
* s u2 a5 m) T+ z4 y" U. ~ 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:* Q1 l2 r; a A; k
& R/ X8 S8 L4 T6 C% P4 q# V% t
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
- ^* z) U8 A6 o) n- u& ]3 g5 D 初盘:0.82平手1.04
$ k! c% ?! {$ ]; y* f% R2 j" f 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85- |! v& U& [# O- y; g+ y X& N
, T8 H u( K- \! D# s
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
8 ?1 N+ [% x' s: s b 初盘:0.76平手1.10
7 V- E/ r- [% ^& l+ X, y 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91, d" p# w! b6 a( L y
' X, J1 F" o: s4 w
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
4 F+ H* n; \* }9 b! g% Z2 ~ 初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 R7 d; g# |( N: E* U$ p; z6 A 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
1 Y' ?$ g& |6 Q1 d # j2 y8 ]) C, [: T2 s8 n* K/ O: j" y
伯恩利2-1西汉姆
: L x1 }$ l, ?& ^# s, H 初盘:0.88平手0.98
/ ~3 A0 h( @8 g |: e- K# N- u 终盘:1.12平/半0.74# e; E, t; i" ^* b" i. T
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
* J9 r% ]! x) U- t& \ 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。& h5 G9 Z5 H t; b _9 L! A
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。1 e+ [& D F' p& d! n4 k0 X" J/ k, k( |
$ K h) w( C/ e# y7 [8 _3 q: S! C 三、球队表现
9 d3 l+ |3 C8 o3 b3 u; M
9 X4 o4 K% D* O& q% y 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
7 a f8 Q* {$ A3 h' J& V* F, c - D* M+ D( n ^ ^/ ~' N0 L$ u
四、投注要点
" h! {% c' a' d 要点1:平手中水、主多不败1 t7 r. m9 E8 f( U
要点2:平手降盘、走两头: Q' ]" r" A% n% R
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败* u- t8 W) \3 q/ x! J% T1 |
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
4 Y3 `1 b' U# L9 O. p 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任4 y) M0 c! T- k3 V0 _- g
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大& A7 T# Q! t8 x+ L9 K2 }& [* A3 ^% e$ {
要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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