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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
8 ~/ k( }+ d# h7 _1 c! k     
+ q8 J2 J" r1 L7 O: G1 _4 `# `2 t     平手中水,主队有利' F$ j; e5 i) r0 I# \+ y/ C
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。2 P8 E2 ?( {+ N3 v1 }
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:! Q8 w5 ]) D. v- u1 k* C5 J
     英超主队$ a/ J( S* N2 g, I
     胜:13场 48%
& k% b' C' [" W0 J7 S! R% G1 h. p     平:5场 17%3 t% T: r6 R9 O
     负:9场 35%0 N6 |, O/ s( x$ r" Q7 F$ S
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。4 h' K( w% l" r0 L7 `  j+ f" q7 f
     
7 N6 O" U) ^* g$ L: f     一、初盘阶段
' F8 C+ ~' w' F/ e+ M     具体到水位如下:
/ r% [, g. a2 S$ ~' i6 F     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
2 f) ~$ R# f0 y     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负2 S' U  s0 G1 C  \
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负7 {5 J' a: O# T2 I
     
- i* e+ W) u+ c1 C     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。: w5 w  H/ r% T' Y% \8 n$ ?
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
( P# c: V+ C- F1 m. P: l     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。* u) n. O: n: D* O6 Q# M
     
4 x, T4 _0 b% I: U* Q7 g  A     二、临场阶段
% \7 d. P+ N1 N/ t$ e2 ^     
7 \1 [  P: ?& q8 u( g4 Z     具体到变盘和水位如下:3 w# U1 M- r8 H( s  I
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负: ^$ Q, _6 B' g7 m# N
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负# {3 L& K$ {/ D
     0 }- [3 U" }7 l
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
( H; s: X. Z% m2 J/ p) e     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
" f, f) F. a' t8 ~0 u     
  f& M9 @! V9 q+ W3 g     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿0 o) R. }, s# H, \1 I2 S& Z
     初盘:0.82平手1.04* I, B) z& |5 [
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85; @/ k# O! F! j8 |; x/ L
     
8 {# n# g; T1 J) V7 T* k     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆9 I, G% l& l7 E7 B, B
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
8 V4 Q& y- Z' Q3 D) ^+ }     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
$ l3 w, U/ I" S3 c7 ~     
* c" C. l" x( ?  y1 i& `5 R0 j2 i     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技# b# @+ r+ ~! L! f  O9 |
     初盘:0.82平手1.04# u8 ~( V- W. a+ {4 j, P  b% x
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
3 o% E5 T; U; p       ?8 v4 O$ J+ d% S9 P8 ]
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
' [5 r: [. `  h' j     初盘:0.88平手0.98
$ o: d" s& f( ~     终盘:1.12平/半0.74. K* }+ R8 q5 s
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
0 U& o7 f/ i9 t0 {9 V( R5 I     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。4 t9 I1 L, J+ S, e( n8 b
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
6 a0 `1 c3 ]3 _0 s     
& i3 o% N1 V$ Y8 A     三、球队表现
. j6 e/ U+ A. m" L! i2 w' G     
( b) n" @( e3 x     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ G1 q8 R- ~9 b- X     : \" W+ h& {  T, a& |
     四、投注要点. }3 K$ i+ G; x' H9 ?
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败+ G3 w6 v8 p( F' t$ O: X; S
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
# f+ s: r5 l$ V9 M7 [     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败2 F0 ~9 U: `# x* u) R$ q
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大6 J0 N1 k9 m; `& ~9 i8 ?, f
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任( S& ?: }9 `4 O, T
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大0 p. D% U9 A6 p# `2 V! \) k, H
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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