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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。, P2 O: R! r( X( B7 ^! |- |
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/ D# Q! {4 B. h4 _8 t+ v西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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# |/ O  P+ x% I% a以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% / M/ j0 r: e# e: ~
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性/ O7 w7 M1 X% F4 m. o

) m$ z1 c; T2 H9 e6 C* c7 t6 n  C对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。0 O& ?# |  p' A/ S, H
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?! w$ b! R# |3 C' t9 {/ \$ q; u- W

2 q: H6 i1 |- B4 t* K  t! i0 pa) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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9 Q( o* _, `& S9 r6 `- [, t# X正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
0 ?7 S4 z0 X4 i: y6 _. J' ~60%的机会你会一无所有5 f% R- g1 s! B/ |7 ]( D
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 8 ~3 L# J2 W9 }- Q% M
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。6 z7 W) J, M4 x7 @9 P: S: n
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。! r( {9 q1 m) x  r. i7 U

; _# S1 A- M6 @. \! O基于增值的投注
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' ~5 V- k* ]: C0 i8 o- z* n& @凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)' n/ p0 t0 I! B  m! S
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A=博彩资金# @+ C2 b- A# U+ H% g9 x  H
P=获胜机会, B0 t1 f' ]$ g3 n
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)4 e3 a- _5 ^) _6 U
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。( C1 }- F) Z$ k+ T

& Y2 f7 K; Y) x# f& f好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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1 n9 ~" \; q( C* g# X3 z  A3 sA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=07 b: [& B. C$ [$ ^( t) Q
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢5 k$ q: D/ N0 g

- b# ~9 M' z/ O" M2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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  P* A8 K3 k: s1 F6 VA=0.1
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2 }3 p3 i) E4 R, S结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去* S- ^+ j# N- b  e2 U
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)* J; v) K7 {+ F+ }* u8 x0 H! f

9 }, B4 j' T. A1 o& wA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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2 x1 }  z9 n+ ^# C结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好" o$ K8 @% ~9 s7 \
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
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