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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 7 i4 f  f5 t" \: H

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只跟踪一个联赛
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔6 Z8 F+ L9 a# t* @; e1 X- D
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，  g: F: z; Q  J5 p2 _5 Q- |+ u$ P) d2 |4 l

6 h1 {) Y' z! ]8 o- S) j$ F. ]偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。/ ~0 G7 j& }1 d: d8 O
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）+ Z2 M# {/ b& k) r. ^

3 n: |! q! T3 f; N/ n# o然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，+ C8 R4 g( e+ Z# L6 ]. [

. C7 h% N4 x+ }% n就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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" e! l; a. i- M8 S1 A* x6 b* Q当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目. |* k- L) _8 v- o+ X% g- W

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) k9 v2 w& {5 H2 z2 W: v# V亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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2 Q; G3 V5 y4 ^. M; E而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，& R& l7 U- Z0 a: q

$ h. r# E# {6 O但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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& j( C& L( i9 Y' g1 p# k# T排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，# c4 K4 M. G5 |% B+ o
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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0 Z) t- i9 x5 l9 ^这比买国债存银行合算。2 c1 e3 G9 K" ~
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，; @4 @, N/ X  ]

/ l) v- Z9 B- ^" ^几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。8 h, i& P6 Y7 `

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1 e( E$ c) H% t+ T$ q' ]+ N常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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- @8 x& y5 V+ X* f5 U  c% Z1 O" b放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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( Q7 ^& \/ d5 W就是回避了大的亏损，
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- l8 a) E- ]8 v9 `* u5 `大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，5 j' O9 ^$ W+ o
, ~1 }; ]8 N( A6 h4 S! x6 l# @
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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