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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。* \5 f2 e( k! K% x6 o) P- H
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# u1 ?6 e$ U2 P. j2 I. t西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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# @4 t0 s% g! I' F以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?% \ F. V, Y1 k5 C3 M
4 {$ r1 o, ` i) E5 p& {答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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5 M( W1 j+ O& m1 y8 p1 }; i1 j
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?% R( @6 m2 c2 F4 \: |# T, x
6 ^4 Q* G X6 H% S+ y
4 K6 n* k! z6 Z# e盈利可能性
7 |) T+ ]8 M* w& O# c0 y, Q. l5 [* n9 b
对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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. B7 i5 o! Y1 j& f0 \5 b' D增值, }( ]% [1 f( V! M$ B
1 o3 D) [: k* M0 O l$ b) I) d
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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% G3 M2 M$ l: n9 Y, W你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 0 y8 z6 F- D/ s( ]+ [
7 l' G0 ^, M' e( n. i s
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
$ x Y3 L9 w6 a( }+ a5 X" [ P60%的机会你会一无所有
, ^, m( }% f( M! S. ^预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 8 x+ q! L: U5 H$ t
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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+ ^$ a. q2 P1 v! \8 w: M8 X公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)7 T3 G/ }. U/ k5 n- S, g
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A=博彩资金" g. C+ T5 k) K0 ?
P=获胜机会
1 ^: t0 |) L: bO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)6 I# p5 {: M, \$ i- x/ [, u$ Q
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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( J& t3 _# T/ E* D# s8 g6 c好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)) ?' g) ~3 E5 }5 I
* q1 Y" u* G$ f9 }A=0
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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; f. l/ G( y) Z2 l$ `3 N2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)( E0 C1 ~! p3 h0 W: U
$ |+ ]: N7 F6 C( A% |- SA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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9 Y4 h& W4 r; d: I4 [* f$ F% XA=0.1 o" [1 q% d5 \6 \5 p
i+ U( R3 x6 f! q k, R) c
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去 Z5 C9 |6 a! @6 V% s& N
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)/ f. C" Y0 B& m4 @* `: Y! s
. p ^: D1 u6 H$ U% ~: v& D5 wA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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# R: T8 o5 G/ LA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好) U; c' A, \+ h
# b6 H3 h+ N: U第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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