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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 8 o# ^  P3 j, |6 V2 |/ o  k2 r

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' l+ c+ g9 G. _9 [只跟踪一个联赛6 J0 }! `( D) o

1 [5 G# J% D# O
. u6 Q2 Z% B( L: [- d全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
: \# h% t* S& E4 k( M, R$ a( b* q) g3 c
然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目7 R" N# X7 A0 r5 @

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: V/ m/ K  I5 Q, O  }4 T亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，: s- x' A) p  n0 {. F% O

; D# {9 j  y- ~' }, x而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，* V& J0 J- I+ o/ p6 N

( B6 K9 M8 x& |, `但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。( M4 O1 H8 t/ t5 a3 y6 Y

) `  D/ l' m( N" \, h2 t- c5 ?排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，1 K' E! ~# |( m* d3 G, ?
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，" p% J/ }8 C, K* A5 e7 K3 G4 ^+ l

1 i! O# k7 O1 Y这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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) X# U( z; s4 S- V- x$ Q% }9 _) _几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。0 [5 H1 k  M, ^- V5 z3 U: d# H

. Y  a) P9 L" E: K& ^放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，- K7 R; z  C8 |( [! K& }
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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/ w7 y: G( b1 u9 p* W回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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