优惠论坛
Well123
注册
找回密码 |
天策评选的优秀公司,所有会员与公司发生的问题我们将负责尽力协助处理。
收起/展开
新晋公司
 

新晋公司具有驻站代表,并不在论坛纠纷服务范围内,请会员自行判断选择

  • 356
S级信誉公司
ManBetX万博
YZ
乐投
188金宝博
E世博
瑞丰国际
A级信誉公司
吉祥坊
星宝合营
乐动体育
Vwin
B级信誉公司
bet365
C级合作公司
CMP
金星
LOKI
平博
  • 推荐主题
  • 热门活动
  • 币圈快讯
  • 商城动态
重要通知
 
论坛搜索
              搜索
Array ( [fid] => 6728 [description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮! [password] => [icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png [redirect] => [attachextensions] => [creditspolicy] => Array ( [digest] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 0 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 1 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 0 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 3 [fid] => 6728 [rulename] => 加精华 [action] => digest [fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728 ) [post] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 5 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 0 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 1 [fid] => 6728 [rulename] => 发表主题 [action] => post [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728 ) [reply] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 0 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 0 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 2 [fid] => 6728 [rulename] => 发表回复 [action] => reply [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728 ) ) [formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";} [moderators] => [rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验 [threadtypes] => Array ( [required] => 1 [listable] => 1 [prefix] => 1 [types] => Array ( [137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则 [138] => 体育菠菜心得方法 [139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询 ) [icons] => Array ( [137] => [138] => [139] => ) [moderators] => Array ( [137] => [138] => [139] => ) ) [threadsorts] => Array ( ) [viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92 [postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92 [spviewperm] => [seotitle] => [keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法 [seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a> [supe_pushsetting] => [modrecommend] => Array ( [open] => 0 [sort] => 0 [orderby] => 2 [num] => 10 [imagenum] => 5 [imagewidth] => 200 [imageheight] => 150 [maxlength] => 0 [cachelife] => 900 [dateline] => 0 ) [threadplugin] => Array ( ) [replybg] => [extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";} [jointype] => 0 [gviewperm] => 0 [membernum] => 0 [dateline] => 0 [lastupdate] => 0 [activity] => 0 [founderuid] => 0 [foundername] => [banner] => [groupnum] => 0 [commentitem] => [relatedgroup] => [picstyle] => 0 [widthauto] => 0 [noantitheft] => 0 [noforumhidewater] => 0 [noforumrecommend] => 0 [livetid] => 0 [price] => 0 [fup] => 6831 [type] => forum [name] => 体育知识讲座 [status] => 1 [displayorder] => 5 [styleid] => 0 [threads] => 2735 [posts] => 23139 [todayposts] => 0 [yesterdayposts] => 0 [rank] => 113 [oldrank] => 114 [lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89 [domain] => [allowsmilies] => 1 [allowhtml] => 1 [allowbbcode] => 1 [allowimgcode] => 1 [allowmediacode] => 0 [allowanonymous] => 0 [allowpostspecial] => 1 [allowspecialonly] => 0 [allowappend] => 0 [alloweditrules] => 0 [allowfeed] => 0 [allowside] => 0 [recyclebin] => 1 [modnewposts] => 2 [jammer] => 1 [disablewatermark] => 0 [inheritedmod] => 0 [autoclose] => 0 [forumcolumns] => 0 [catforumcolumns] => 0 [threadcaches] => 0 [alloweditpost] => 1 [simple] => 16 [modworks] => 1 [allowglobalstick] => 1 [level] => 0 [commoncredits] => 0 [archive] => 0 [recommend] => 0 [favtimes] => 0 [sharetimes] => 0 [disablethumb] => 0 [disablecollect] => 0 [ismoderator] => 0 [threadtableid] => 0 [allowreply] => [allowpost] => [allowpostattach] => )
打印 上一主题 下一主题
[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
[复制链接]
avatar
跳转到指定楼层
1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
3 W* U2 u) C5 t& m" s" F3 R9 `6 v, V+ A9 f. ]! ^
9 K* a4 y6 n. c9 f: `! U
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
5 ~7 Z/ b% m0 w  }8 ^) Z# t0 v( V1 a$ j/ V
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:% L; A6 S$ M0 K' b& l" T" ~; Y
. \& r  K3 h/ [9 Y# G! |
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
# L3 m5 A/ w: i% `. e. M
8 a+ ]; y( h9 I3 h5 o( \8 t5 V4 o+ v很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?( F4 ?6 w$ |- S) c$ S- v3 c& y
1 L, U4 N+ c) G  Z8 D" ^- `6 T; A1 i3 i
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)1 s' t& B; x6 @: \4 {3 _( n; ?5 Y
2 Q% A2 s, N- W5 h
/ P$ S' e" g$ J1 Z7 H& T
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?# v" b5 D; z; }( t: c1 n: f, I8 D

5 }+ I' T9 i0 i) h
* F  H/ l7 ~& u" t: v/ ]1 Q
盈利可能性
% a5 T( D3 y7 C

& k9 X+ ~4 v# \" \对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
* r3 D5 g1 K" V+ F
6 R  H" M0 u6 B6 |/ a* V: }$ e增值
8 h* Y# P' a- c- e2 z0 d
& E: @7 b. ^9 @7 D5 Q9 d9 P# Y许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。+ E" g; V3 P# @
/ v: M3 ~# \, J- Q' O
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
2 w6 S  ?* r4 s) V/ N5 a2 {5 }! p; t8 I0 }0 L- p# K2 E
a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 % A- x# |/ E2 [4 U

* _# H% b* o3 O, f% ?$ S, A, f正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
% D- ]8 ]8 H4 g7 x
$ t9 R, B$ x* N: G$ K40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
+ Z/ Z/ c, m% _8 i0 @0 D, P60%的机会你会一无所有
+ a- q, n  o: I0 }. e4 r& C& q预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 2 ?0 L: y+ h; _3 D" o) w6 U
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
. W# H# N6 a! q/ j* b: b$ M( @: D  b
4 d1 O$ p; l3 Q  ^5 ~( d( d1 H增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
" B! P2 s1 i: l$ I( d
/ v, j- _8 y3 j- w( x# o基于增值的投注" d1 C9 R7 I# G1 }. V# x6 J

" L1 k& o/ p+ {3 S* o4 c" i7 E凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
8 @0 }! b7 q, q3 E% s: d! J7 N
/ B: J7 Q+ [7 ]公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
9 w6 |) y# J& {# o" i
5 c& E2 K) f6 T5 \) R% ~A=博彩资金5 [1 a, A2 }5 s6 m
P=获胜机会% d8 E- Y$ h3 [, r, c
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)+ ?: F2 I1 M3 ]- D
6 c9 q( `  L9 U
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。+ n8 P1 O: }3 d
+ p% {) w% b: X, _( k
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。6 v1 I1 i' l) X3 h, @& y

6 g* f: h5 b( i! d& x. r( d6 _1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
8 ]* t8 G1 C% w' L% Z
. d0 p1 Z, K' ~2 SA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
  Q/ C" g& y! t+ E* j0 k% g; W
3 Z& A* F2 D9 {4 i6 ]% `A=0
" @: |$ K% l: i' z. @5 a
" G0 ~- P+ i" `7 A' [结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢/ Z+ l( d8 D. f: C+ Z$ U* C- j3 ^

: M' f# M. f7 Q, F8 G2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
1 Y8 y- }. f% R7 Y2 }9 o; Z- X+ G. q/ I5 T
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)( z0 e- _5 Y7 c" ?6 j

' a4 |: k& T2 \9 uA=0.1  h/ l. B5 v4 s0 k

0 w* O) U( d2 V2 J9 t: D结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
  t. O1 `  j3 K' d3 R* r& m5 Z
: c( k- l' k9 O8 ~* ^6 P+ O3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
3 t7 S# N& d& X0 r2 D3 h9 d5 X8 [6 w2 t* T2 E# g4 ^
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
& @( [/ I( r( E: d) |) {4 c) V! M4 H+ [/ ?' N( Q; n( m$ T
A= -0.2
9 p& t5 I$ U' R& h
% W8 `7 ]% K; h) r) ?' C结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好  [. E/ Y# P; M5 B6 {1 }+ D1 n
3 |0 D$ p' j' n3 X8 i
第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
avatar
4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
avatar
3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
avatar
2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 论坛注册

本版积分规则

:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
{:8_294:} {:8_295:} {:8_296:} {:8_297:}
{:8_298:} {:8_299:} {:8_300:} {:8_301:}
{:8_302:} {:8_303:} {:8_304:} {:8_305:}
{:8_306:} {:8_307:} {:8_308:} {:8_309:}
{:8_310:} {:8_311:} {:8_312:}
{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


Powered by 天策论坛   © 2007-2025 天策论坛 | 小黑屋 | 手机|
1717 : 0