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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率' v3 l; \1 g$ l. I3 P# S
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:5 h3 F3 ~: T8 j

( K2 k6 v5 u/ z, F! U) P8 p& G4 V- y皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% $ A" G( r, h' N6 Y1 C

* L& [  s9 P" x4 n很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!): }/ g' _; I: M: t" c
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% D0 H( v3 J; a3 q; N" r, l以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?1 m- d% A0 y! F3 d
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盈利可能性
5 D$ K% I0 N6 ?+ u: B. u+ ?! s. y

# q0 ?2 Q2 j9 M1 a; R9 S对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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0 i4 [% t) u+ u7 z4 z/ E4 p增值4 T) ~; c# k" s3 L0 r
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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8 M3 {# }6 n* S5 z& |0 ?你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?, v( j7 S2 z. s( r2 S

1 d( P5 s/ ]; _% k( d, {! M. Fa) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 - j" Z3 c" ^/ L' m2 \% S; R+ B
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么$ s3 v) T% X6 x+ E' S
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 G( r; z/ A. }: `( d
60%的机会你会一无所有
- J8 X6 g" b0 k: T  P预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
4 k' g9 y8 K7 x3 I$ T9 R" v0 b( o/ r由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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, I- J5 b* ^" r* Q( B0 Z增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注' L) q  H: r) @* N# K) W$ ?

( F/ U6 s4 d+ f凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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( C' c9 t* E- a/ @# v! A公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)+ y3 ^5 ~/ N1 F3 P( j
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A=博彩资金0 A% I, o, w, p6 S+ {. s
P=获胜机会
& _, X& S) m! V1 iO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)  {( m, {* O% n& _$ G2 ]
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。8 J* z0 r* Q8 |4 r" n6 g3 l
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。& _( M* h) F  O  ~" }

3 _5 K4 S' D1 S3 j  I1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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3 N  |, F9 N  tA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)) g$ f+ z- b( U
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A=0& B% _/ @1 {  E" _) o; I; h
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢. f, J. g- j: b  \0 D
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)9 K) \" p* ]- z: A7 O" q

7 a4 X& h' A0 ]( W# j0 \A=0.1
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4 T; m: R8 z9 B+ |' Z8 i, [结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去7 O: \( \! b1 n0 V; }

2 w  x3 }$ }+ }  u3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)& q4 d8 W5 n  S) B
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)+ w% R$ t1 T! k8 z8 `4 Y3 _

5 L/ e) h' A& j: w, w- o4 TA= -0.2 2 o. g  e& H0 z: h

; g( Y/ s9 z6 r0 \% H  _结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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+ l* W2 y- e8 Z$ R" L. x第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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