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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
- x8 Q5 f3 ?) u7 t, x : I$ F! i- a5 ]6 H: i# x; ]! Q
平手中水,主队有利! b2 F' P1 p. e7 w% f2 M" V
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
! z) h5 T/ s0 p6 U2 j3 a" n 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
1 N; }+ f8 Z" K1 b# W* v# P! v7 Z7 Q0 c/ z 英超主队, R- j3 i( j- R. k; _. G
胜:13场 48%' @5 g! H) P) D, E6 v
平:5场 17%
, y' x. \9 |7 T' J+ @/ ^9 l 负:9场 35%) f h' e& V$ a6 f
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
: c3 J9 }, o6 j- W ( P. H9 J$ U" U9 I' R- v: H7 n' F4 W
一、初盘阶段# A3 s/ y+ r: w1 Z
具体到水位如下:* o2 p$ e1 J6 r. \" K' f" d: m
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
: h7 R9 m- H0 P7 p 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负 a% c- i3 X+ T% `+ k7 r. f7 ]
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负1 `$ i! T* `3 {; G$ J* Z7 {
% ` C ~* U% B- T
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。/ n5 U4 y1 x4 l& C' n
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
4 L; O8 n5 V; [6 v+ G% y, z' b 初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
6 Q+ Q5 p4 ~4 S Z; i& ?" q6 Z# Q$ H $ ~5 O" j& Z9 ^% c. d8 X1 c- d
二、临场阶段! L9 c/ U2 U4 P/ w5 q; X0 E
+ G6 c0 s* s/ L' W" p' V 具体到变盘和水位如下:8 ~6 r, ]! Z( }, O0 g' L3 \) n# Y5 L, F
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" m) l2 u: e( L$ H7 F) \
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负1 c: |4 v9 e0 @! s v& x% z
$ p" L5 v D0 g. y* r( f/ @0 w
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。5 k3 x( D2 `+ m3 v" Z
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
+ B: u2 J! k) r; s8 X1 K
! t* [! G" x- k% o3 `: Q; W 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
0 W- D* }7 Z: R7 | 初盘:0.82平手1.04; L0 t% B6 o* y" T8 T: d
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
$ M' H9 G/ m2 L/ x8 h - c+ `3 v% u5 p* i6 w2 E3 F/ T! Y
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
7 m: _- J: o0 D4 e$ b 初盘:0.76平手1.10
& l4 I" D4 o$ l& d3 N1 g0 d/ D 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
4 W7 f' T( |4 r2 V & R _$ }& E7 L6 C8 q: l* k
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
6 }8 ~- S' y9 C8 [2 X0 ]& | 初盘:0.82平手1.04
% r9 S$ h( b$ }' Q! y9 C- h+ l 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.983 n. {4 X9 o3 b0 h! v' g) O/ i
+ U' s6 i% i: e& m9 G 伯恩利2-1西汉姆# z: m2 Q- ]! ~9 C: M2 P
初盘:0.88平手0.98
) v1 C0 V3 r6 i. F 终盘:1.12平/半0.74
9 y* Z' C9 |% d5 a7 _, R7 ]: P s 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
8 E# i" o' k8 Y s) s- P9 Z( n 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。6 F# b+ E+ ]6 I m4 \! ~: t
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
3 k6 p8 Y) X0 T
3 M1 p" ?1 `/ L3 |. U% a4 W 三、球队表现
: ]2 N/ n( f V+ p% ?4 t
# @' f' M/ |$ e' X) t* B& B& ` 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
/ `( O" }& N+ a4 `8 y* v: L" y n) Y7 U T( g7 t! q( _
四、投注要点, q; n1 E/ L: R. H. P$ x8 r
要点1:平手中水、主多不败5 f& k' O. m5 T. n. _
要点2:平手降盘、走两头* q; u! I7 R( |6 D8 M
要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
6 ?1 Z: h$ k) N( X \ 要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大 i1 Z q" E: Y; t# [5 m
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
6 j% G7 H3 f) z4 r% M5 ~/ T" n 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
' Q' v1 y" l: o5 c 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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