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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
0 m5 L- S3 j) y& Z, ~' {  f- x, z     / L' H2 a1 \6 R/ j
     平手中水,主队有利
* I: P; O: D0 C     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。1 E* F9 l: z* u! v% N9 S9 s8 x
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:! ]2 P7 i/ X: p) g2 B
     英超主队2 G/ K% k6 }. ], I! p- S
     胜:13场 48%
, d$ l* q1 ]- g" m" ]- W* Q5 B     平:5场 17%
, Y7 Y. d; U. y" q     负:9场 35%- W3 U) G2 a: `) k
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。/ B7 @  Z, I! N! k% V$ S+ X7 {! M
     / Z1 |: |; }) Y6 O+ {$ F
     一、初盘阶段7 s1 `* h7 o/ P% ]8 R5 F
     具体到水位如下:
' o8 F- L1 i  P1 l     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
1 p. S! ?; h. T. }: z     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负, O( x* C8 h# o# J0 S( F
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
4 r% R3 e* \8 ]6 g: w+ b, S5 u6 B1 w     
# |% q+ Z1 r- b! y8 U     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
& N9 y  ?$ V5 x+ F* C; W2 w* [     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。3 ]0 o. D' I) @: a* V5 o( s
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。* H' U8 o3 O6 y5 Z) B0 b/ {# O
     ) A# Y6 C- g9 U" y0 H& s+ {
     二、临场阶段" @4 B6 k. q5 }, W
     # G" u# W1 J$ f1 [! I
     具体到变盘和水位如下:- x. ?0 N. H4 T4 ^4 n4 n# @  C
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" G4 w8 p2 P6 s& E( \( M
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负5 ]# r4 k: _$ J+ H9 J' q
     
; F+ A/ |5 Z2 c4 B     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
% j3 C* S! n8 s) L2 g! E% A     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:; N' {* J( F, d9 }* Q) L2 M4 a' X
     5 ?, v: B0 d9 U! m. J
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿+ p, g5 P' C% R
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
) u0 G! ?# s% l) \& D/ p; r" {, y, ^     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
+ ]/ k8 i; f; c. t7 ]1 Q) k! H     
: w2 ]% x" D) |; x7 l     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
- W* |6 B; ]6 H1 B9 y     初盘:0.76平手1.10/ ~0 C4 ^8 y9 j
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91; x+ H9 A( y& W' X# N- V( c( y
     # D; o& y, r2 Y( W
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技' z# r; u' a& A$ g0 c1 o
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
+ u. k, J6 t2 a) u  s8 p     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
! S) a5 P$ _7 G; X     
! [) Q. `* k. J, j' n     伯恩利2-1西汉姆8 b5 d# Q& F( Y4 ~0 U5 ~% \
     初盘:0.88平手0.98! |" N+ J/ y7 z$ W: z6 D
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
3 T: w# C$ E! ~     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
& E9 S" n. I8 @6 P4 Z% u6 e     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。% l  l9 H9 `# ^  z
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。+ Z; z7 L# |, G+ w8 w6 u* K
     ; w/ k6 B1 E0 n
     三、球队表现
4 n# j6 L, s/ w% W1 Z) w     , W7 X0 ]) a5 p& q: P/ q
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。7 q; _& ^+ I: i9 N7 j$ ~6 a% m
     . s& s# w, I. ?4 J( B' Y) u/ r
     四、投注要点
/ [, Y- B3 U, L+ {     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
& E* x: {- g0 d& M( D* T3 |     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
  |) ^, F; u; m1 b- [# ^7 `     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败% s& Q2 {9 F  G1 i% S7 S, Z  b$ O
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大6 U6 Q2 I1 V! [& w7 I4 u; Q8 `
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任* f! q7 q+ g1 H" J1 G, Q$ S
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
$ ]  i* a% x2 H- ?     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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