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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。- W1 N- t5 O% h! ]$ ]& u
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4 r% D0 G8 w" N; ^西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% % T3 f2 G/ Q* I% U# C# V$ ^* Q. g
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?9 R+ M% p  W: t& F

, {) c% @4 Q0 r' z% A答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)9 r- M: U/ I; X  J9 ^
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* X) l, m2 N+ w; y# }+ Q0 ^. ^以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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" x' x$ Y+ U+ x' L对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值5 `8 f2 p" J7 l' M

2 l3 Q: L- ]4 H7 }7 X% M1 R" y) k许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。0 N6 r4 G# s. t4 z. U  a

& c$ H6 V* `3 G% Q" E0 d( B你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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; A$ b0 o0 R# oa) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 - ~) J0 z& r) M; _% f0 V
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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- }# t( m' l6 X2 }  t8 Z7 ^40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
0 I! x( k; s5 ?- U  S60%的机会你会一无所有
/ m' f; m; e7 O6 [  ?! N& @4 M8 X预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 ) |- i0 T0 W. p0 O, t' N
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。8 Z8 w# U2 P' \: C. a1 W
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。4 }4 r! D# X. o3 b( P
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基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1): t* t  z: E; s0 M, D

. A$ J% T1 J9 g8 \A=博彩资金
8 W4 f) c9 q0 ^3 ?& X# l! b( ?P=获胜机会
8 Q! R6 d" [4 OO=总获得回报(包括投注本金): S( ]" B* s, H( P) g0 y1 T
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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# T' c+ Y- b  a1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)0 K+ _7 {. t" d

0 A8 O! H" c8 u% g6 L9 TA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)2 A2 f3 y* f! V$ k  v( O, i
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A=0
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" G2 g$ |) E( U' E结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢7 c4 a4 K8 r3 D7 F

/ r/ p4 a+ {" z( x2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)/ ^3 A! g0 g& j
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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+ V, _& X9 G% k. L7 c9 T' W结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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# n2 a1 W/ l$ s3 |5 D3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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5 [1 S' w" f: [' Q% j* e: ^7 ZA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)9 u7 n. n! m+ i* S) k$ e& t
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
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