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如果庄家为这个游戏设置赔率,理想情况下应该是正面赔率L1=2,反面赔率L2=2,概率与赔率的乘积4 K0 Z+ n4 I9 ^7 a6 M
W$ m3 c7 E H v P1 * L1 = P2 * L2 = 50% * 2 = 100%8 M3 V6 ]0 e- D4 f! h
# x4 V8 u/ [, s( z& z9 M& u Q
这样如果有人投注的话,赢和输的机会和庄家是相等的,这个赔率在博彩理论上称为
& w, G1 ?6 g. K3 S& z“公平赔率”(Fair Odds),它并不保证庄家的赢利,其中不包含必然的庄家利润。然而这只是理想情况。
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实际情况是,庄家会开出正面L11=1.9,反面L22=1.9的赔率,概率与赔率的乘积1 M1 `+ U3 u4 M
& m; A0 O5 G5 j C
P1 * L11 = P2 * L22 = 50% * 1.9 = 95% < 100%% F( j: B2 d' \9 m# o3 B: q
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在这个情况下,投注者和庄家已经不处于平等的位置,这时的赔率可以保证庄家的赢利,其中包含了庄家的必然利润,也就是俗称的“佣金”或“水钱”。这种情况实际上是任何博彩游戏庄家赢利的基本模式,即对于一个投注事件,开出的受注赔率L必须满足 l% {9 c) u, H, f/ A1 H# G
- P% P' }( v( B! }. z; y
P * L < 100% (P是该事件出现的概率)
$ a* B% E, H) R% M$ a
! q( `2 Y. Y# W+ ]& n: b: S& U 这个公式,理论上使庄家立于不败之地。
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其实,庄家在此存在着极大的风险。赔率L是庄家定的,但公式中另一个重要元素P,即事件发生的概率,是不能主观臆定的,对于抛硬币游戏来说,这个P是很容易从经验确定,但扩展到其他更复杂的事件,如果对于P的计算出现偏差,庄家就要冒P*L>100%赔本的风险!
7 t$ `8 @- W8 `% b b
' s/ K8 q3 X1 P8 M5 M, e 博彩公司的赔率制定类似保险公司的保费和赔付方案一样,需要依赖严谨的概率计算,他们在这方面做的很专业。具体到足球比赛,对于310的赛果,他们有一套成熟的数学模型,可以在综合了各种主客观因素的情况下精确地计算出交手两队的临场实力差,并进而演算出310的发生概率,这个概率是前文所提的公平概率,令人叹服的是,通常情况下,这个概率相当接近投注者对赛果的投注比例!* o. Q0 D2 \4 _" \
4 D8 o! A1 U* W: l" K" j 一个随即引伸出来的问题是,足球比赛具有相当的不确定性,另一方面投注者对于某个赛果的期望可能超出正常的理论计算值,这两个因素的存在,使博彩公司面临另一种潜在风险,而且远甚于前述的概率评估错误的风险。因此博彩公司通常会在公平赔率的基础上,为每个可能结果预留足够多的利润,以平衡这种风险。8 {7 W e9 i& R" V5 z4 q7 r
+ {2 I$ i- C- O5 n; n8 f. K8 L 事物总有它的两面性。庄家在承担着上述种种风险的同时,也存在着利用这几个风险点攫取暴利的可能。拿抛硬币的例子来说,如果假设由于某种影响因素,使正反面出现的概率不再相等,比如说正面60%,反面40%,而这一概率变化投注者并不知道,最后的投注比例通常还会维持五十五十。而此时站在暗处的庄家在设置接受投注的赔率时可以有两种选择,一是客观地按照游戏结果的概率变化,调整赔率,将正面赔率调低,反面赔率调高,这样仍然可以维持正常佣金收入;另一个冒险的选择是,庄家并不改变原来的赔率,以反面开出时赔本的风险来换取正面开出时的远远超出佣金的暴利。) d5 Z: P$ K) Y% }& N
1 j1 R. ^0 e, k \1 e' E* j" G, _8 @ 后一种情况并非天方夜谭,正相反,它出现的频率使人对庄家之于比赛的把握不得不由衷赞叹!$ \5 z0 z7 l# |2 s. L$ q
# C) n! L3 {$ J: n: v 要运用这种冒险求暴利的方式,取决于两个先决条件,一是庄家对于预定赛果的高度把握,二是该赛果的概率高于投注者普遍公认的概率。 |
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