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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。: k/ }, }+ B% t3 L0 O! G
# c2 H+ K0 j/ |( P但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。- N# C4 |( j. P
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市* |0 j* I m, T
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal, C; ?+ f2 G9 ~( y0 O
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。2 P+ ?+ S9 J0 H$ h" @! ^2 R
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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! g. E; @; \: C/ s) {. _事情变得有趣了
: y! h; n' Z. b3 PBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。( r0 Z! U8 T6 V5 |! Y! f& Q5 i
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来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。5 Y# e6 X/ D- v) B8 H0 J0 z
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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- p* ]0 l$ v& c随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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( O1 Y9 s Q% O- d& U y3 f空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
, D" t% L- L% ^; |9 p经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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: I: p1 J% a" ?# p来源：TradingView
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8 |; S6 h4 F. U& g1 m; X6 f日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。5 E* ] s) X5 h6 y: w; }
x* K- r/ E b6 [# H. V: u4 _0 _然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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