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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。# R2 }9 h4 i; ~% V) J- g
/ r8 F# a( o& h1 u, t& B& D/ O7 O但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。% K' b3 i7 J" G3 \
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市6 a8 t8 u, Y8 {8 {
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。0 f& Y+ J, h) Q& v* d- w! W
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
% {4 s, D3 }, T9 Y5 F) F! XBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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0 ?) j8 {# p; @7 {6 M来源：X
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* _# j& B b9 f' {根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。7 w, a5 D' N# ?, g
7 D# U: ?. q G& ?BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。/ k5 e, h/ o6 e1 c) a, j, P
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。: E8 a2 a% d4 t+ V" c" z
* d8 R8 u; |5 s, H随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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& c# f6 M5 t% K7 K空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力' v5 E2 Q! k8 X7 P' F3 q( \
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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; o/ R- H* D. S' f来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。7 U: Y' _' p- H6 a/ u4 h
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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9 J0 ]( Q2 @5 n/ M8 y0 v突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。' B- L0 [( s' D
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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