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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人- P' M8 b: Y2 B1 y1 G
1 ?1 H5 W7 w! g认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
( J+ b& D2 M) Z8 [+ u
0 L$ |! @5 \5 [$ w/ D; V而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富 n' I% v9 o a6 B
- |0 x2 k* ?$ ]; C8 G的千禧一代。: W) K7 n4 y& g0 f# Q T
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
) e8 J/ C0 Y: A7 M8 d+ \
$ R+ t# t7 `& y) `的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“) O% O0 U7 Z! A& z
' K! |# ^' C2 ]/ c i: @
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
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密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据: X# x- v5 j/ ^- t( F, M+ N
6 i/ H- z# m# s3 a
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成* D$ M$ S" o; ^3 s1 L
( } _- E" D; D的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
% O: E: x# O7 ]% [8 v5 Q
" |! s, \* Q2 {报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；% O' Z, o$ t! w
) ^. E5 r1 {5 o) b) e/ [9 B# M10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
7 o" Z% ?8 n: `9 g+ B( I( Z2 k- y9 g. Q1 _ C; k
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。( e. M$ ]4 }9 G& W# z: R' y
. `, p! X1 L- x& Q& D- R5 F/ f据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降8 j y* F" H8 y+ b( z1 S5 _5 s5 f o
* {* m4 t( }2 h. |8 E5 }; m1 B息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
; j3 u3 `* C3 Q& d- H0 R: B% s3 B% h% B6 i8 |
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密$ j; ?1 R8 m8 P, T4 `4 P" j: z3 D; B! ]
& I. I; |. ]: G1 m. _" R世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
$ j1 y e0 U& u8 W9 o
( x/ f6 q; _6 P7 C2 h. N# j传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
2 p6 }' d6 K5 }2 r- u
' p2 i# [/ L' b4 R$ \到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
# o& u- V' i) i9 f0 g E9 z# c" A0 J1 E- a3 j) m
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成) k$ t6 ^1 [, b+ D
- r) A+ ]7 H4 v本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体& X; i, O6 Q6 d7 V+ O, L
/ z5 s$ L7 J1 B; M
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
n3 s% G3 r" J, S% {) ]/ }& `1 @
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致/ Y! r6 c7 v1 S5 p
7 x; ^2 C; j, w( F% h, I( h
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
" b) @, q) G$ G' _1 _. B: f3 t* U7 i( w
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
% x8 ^2 V$ M' o: u! I8 K, i5 [
' F: |. V+ Y O' @6 Z, V& q: Z4 D: @' q1 k% T' _
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