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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人0 Q5 r; Y* N% C5 Z1 v; V7 @2 J
( V! C1 {6 z6 R% R8 F. j% x! Q认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，) d6 A4 s& W; `; q9 X4 j1 |- Q
: Z; K( A8 }4 T- a4 e/ M, _而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富% l: A2 u" G" k P: E& ]
4 ^+ E! z& ^# F/ S$ L
的千禧一代。1 ^$ m5 D9 h r4 R6 }
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
) Q i" u9 G, `+ L' W9 |: n. N i6 D" u. q6 e
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“) O/ M! w8 D; p y3 }
: w! c }/ k( H- @; q) J 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加5 N; G' a' x6 P$ f5 f$ G0 ~+ O3 k
, r6 m! I2 ^1 s# m: l$ P* R
密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
% }3 A0 a/ X& {! Y' q5 B0 h8 l; i' C4 K' r
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成) G4 f1 @" Z: n
- z* j( D9 L, q3 ^4 B9 Y0 Z
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
4 v, g- C8 {# u, `! e; ~6 U. e' G! h/ H2 z- Z2 p m
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
% u( Z9 B/ O$ @1 f8 U8 D$ k& ]9 @9 d$ @6 I, X& a
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为+ P# k' v- f. w# j' g: @
! ~' x! E3 a- L1 L3 M) CETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
: ^6 H+ r" `! a" J0 U. t! S, R2 y9 T% L; T
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降0 \% {$ W3 k0 a) I
+ |, v* q( {8 o8 S4 K$ h, g) q息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。. f8 W7 h2 {6 G4 k$ U
0 g9 h1 D) v4 Y0 j( u; `与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密$ p4 K2 I' U4 l1 S- X
; i, U1 h, o$ \# T世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
" `+ O, k( `/ x& }* a U: R8 m9 {- a* s4 q1 X: z' h
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
) ~0 ^: T/ V% l/ \: r! c' A$ c2 B! B6 k* {' k/ n4 t1 E, T
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
2 \) e+ d: \; E+ t
7 P4 L& y* r5 S9 d( R$ K" J& ]代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
+ B- @ }+ o3 y) }2 u, q0 a7 H6 q7 k f5 m0 I! K
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体& d/ T# H( P0 `/ t' C R1 F
5 G8 U7 F7 [- ^+ K
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
5 s$ a! k' \2 w( J) F* z
# l. U) z1 N1 T币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致+ I, e/ V, i( r9 P2 i9 f0 X" y
% U6 { a: k9 J+ `0 x! X
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
" c2 d+ ]0 q8 \
- e( S' y$ X9 D4 y& s/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
) }( X0 t5 ~. h( {- o, d
6 v% G$ P! N& f3 Y J( l( b# `
5 j5 T3 \5 b( }( I& s; ]/ O |
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