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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人% a' T% m) c; U( @4 }
- m, `6 T* N9 ~) y% f; r1 f
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，, c& g% d+ a/ _1 A2 X: W( {
+ H( s# M+ \" [0 K5 _+ m1 f( Y
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
* Q( G3 s& Y( J. N Y+ A3 o: t4 X$ X' V
- d5 Y& D; `' P4 n) e6 `" {的千禧一代。/ q. x2 v) T, }( U; Y, z
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB$ Y0 p3 {. p# Z) d1 @3 s5 ]7 `
8 O4 N$ W3 h: S的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“
8 b% }4 I: L1 }, I, y z
$ ?$ s) x6 _/ T* U" N0 {) ?2 V 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加3 u. s! ?( Q2 q) s9 M, j9 O
3 S/ X( a0 [" Q' X, c& r9 u) W密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据: I- }9 ]9 [' S( |1 A2 u
6 G0 d5 K* ]# y2 r* x# W《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成; G- n- z# M U5 f y
0 S4 B7 _8 R& D# c的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
6 o- X8 w, [1 f) n! B( q' d3 H& d* q& Z4 h; B' E6 x
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；+ J, u& z0 ?$ I
8 i, E9 [! @- V: S8 l# n9 o10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为% n, E* @5 ?" i
' u' A8 `9 h. v' L% a" c
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
, B t8 ]6 p( \7 N3 ?) r
) O' ]8 z: g _4 C" t6 V据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
; x( {$ h+ d/ d# G' [0 d0 A4 b# U ^! A" a: R6 |3 \: i/ ?+ V
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。8 {& P# f9 L3 S- j- `1 f {1 u
, I+ n& I' G, P2 v& c* j2 `与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密5 v1 \) _7 I3 V0 z
3 \# w; d. Y4 v& I, v& W! B世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
: g# b# ~2 R4 W3 R6 v0 l0 q5 A
3 R. ?; G/ i' e% N- `" H4 P传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不5 d0 o$ o- d6 ]; x' B
; y9 d" ]' c2 p. G( n( c
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一( ^# ?, r9 X2 U$ Q
! [$ Z# N8 U2 H! e. ~+ [代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成, G9 P( K2 k( J b# `2 J6 _2 c
! l7 ?& P/ c& x9 d6 z% N' p& i
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
" m; d+ k. v6 m4 G7 W
: ^/ ~; }0 w: G& z/ T& Y0 F系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货. D% Q: ]$ o' Q) p% Z
6 g4 r. R) n; M+ h
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致: |5 \% v/ t5 ]8 w) z$ Y
+ u/ q! ]# { V; K* ]. e. S
未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
7 E* N3 m! f& J# Q7 B2 X3 k# u9 t
" d. @4 x/ S: E( a) [! e4 _/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
3 T. x' N2 Y# l; V# H, l- {( g2 j* w2 r" M: t8 j/ \) }: v% X
+ x+ q2 g% A" F8 l$ y5 m, i |
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