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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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! i3 w' n% F" Q |' [认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
. v1 h/ Z3 b' ~- G6 [' A) i
, ~: j: g9 A. ^3 J4 a. t而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
: P! _' I; n7 G" }( g+ g4 ~; ^# k9 Z2 K! P, c# i
的千禧一代。- q5 L: k4 q! l2 y9 @% r( m. `, ~
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB. ], a: {! {. u! A/ U; w% j( Q8 i+ k( I
. R6 q- r3 I; H n5 w- f# m! h
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“" S; f& ?: j: c0 ]
. U6 _8 h5 l# ~" g
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加; M6 _! f7 X- S1 |
- {0 ~, }! P& `5 s4 T密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
% ~$ w+ ]6 h' o6 G0 i9 L: \3 O, E9 K7 D+ i7 q; x
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
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的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》5 z3 w' Q. b, n' @- N! `
: Z, H% D, M$ k9 X: H
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
t* k# [0 n0 a' \7 {6 ` |. g+ q- q& I r, F7 g
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
$ j2 J6 ~2 @1 ~* X& T( S; i/ [2 N1 ~3 u: ^2 D+ u- ^
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
! }; e5 {/ d7 T) ?5 B1 m
( v {. k. i8 }& K. ?据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
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! K. b z% j6 j4 Z4 c1 s7 }; o4 {1 Z息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。/ C6 ]% u% m5 s# \: J2 |
" H. _9 `8 M \8 ?& I9 h, l+ C% ~
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
4 j; \1 R/ P2 P5 Z9 A7 {5 J5 U9 K r$ W1 i5 D( @9 k
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富4 {% j* l. F |
6 Z% d5 g+ A% |1 O
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不5 K! U* Z8 c( M9 o+ R
' z2 E9 o2 ]. U# |, F6 h到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一 D% _# @3 T" \+ @
! R% T+ h" w1 i8 v
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
: E) i/ b6 V! F/ F7 C& n
0 x) B8 W5 v/ e+ G4 N本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体4 y7 S3 G6 y. i+ o1 Z& `: h
- o7 n, t' W9 T' w; Z系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货; |( ^7 g7 C1 v s+ N# j
6 {- {& z" f3 H, @) u' R币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
6 H9 f4 Z2 X; O3 o% c0 c* I
! G9 O4 ^( o0 y8 h7 L1 E未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
, t- I; R4 A' a7 T! N: ]- C8 Q, o+ M) [) N1 N
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。7 T$ R" J) Y; @& z, S2 S) E8 Z
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