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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 / k& O% q( F* `$ H' s8 z
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
- _* i# V! M0 I/ ~6 j) o此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 2 X |4 C! ^/ L6 Q
以太坊基金集体亏损
v- y6 r9 k q$ w7 C, A/ j根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
1 f6 z" S/ A7 g2 ]- R与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 / I `/ S8 `0 `% v9 Z$ Q' E: Y
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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; g$ }6 {+ S& m/ F5 N" f编辑切换为居中 " }+ n4 G( y, Z4 f* S
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
9 y) K. [/ T& t# ?. x' K) H( F$ u这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 * O. D$ A0 x" n& m
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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编辑切换为居中 5 ]- v8 v8 {$ h' H
6月5日的TVL以太坊
+ O, b/ P3 F* Z& ^# K6 o7 E- Q5 B, t但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
! Y0 n* }6 e% I$ |3 N/ D宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
4 `8 v% B: B! L$ { V男性讲述金融时报: 5 s/ c* V+ _* j0 ?" z$ r
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
/ H9 n9 p5 h4 i r9 ]# J- o) G呆滞的技术面 6 _! A! Y3 Y9 j5 T7 E. D/ ]
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
( K0 q& G5 _; H' u0 p$ M具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
6 G( F6 ` c0 A" @: f根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 9 A- I& |3 V% y
& y/ ~) `: ?. i8 z! ]编辑切换为居中 ( l2 P2 y! M" \
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
. F! u6 z/ m& x& s0 Q6 `, A如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
$ S( d( c" S& R: ~# y; ~交易所的ETH储备正在增加
* l. H& }% M) ?: `0 H- tCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
: C% m7 n2 S: g# V( j自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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编辑切换为居中 ; Q5 W7 `1 t, j3 d; r. M2 Y
以太坊外汇储备 , R5 P4 g: o4 U9 `
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 + g8 Z: k# \% P+ e' N
来源：金色财经 |
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