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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
; Q- v! n1 N# l3 \8 ` m% r6 [! e以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
7 R$ ~) f7 o* @3 M8 @% K此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 " d2 Z7 [' a0 X- l- _. {; e
以太坊基金集体亏损
2 z3 N: r: ?" i" N' m4 U/ n! T根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
+ x5 F+ T; u' \8 J9 U0 T1 h与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 . y; W; H/ s- ]) U: \
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 9 @& _8 o3 B2 ]/ U) t
( _9 J$ q. w5 p* H2 s. @2 [
编辑切换为居中 & G" C7 v/ R" G0 n( w1 E
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
' U+ k4 ~" Q9 Q& c$ b这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
, S$ S* W! A* d以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
3 \9 j W: u0 J3 N
2 b: `8 t$ q& C编辑切换为居中 9 _% ?; h( O' `3 }' C$ u' z9 j
6月5日的TVL以太坊
* m' a+ k! S! [. t; W但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 % O- k" H/ J0 q, {; f* S: T0 \# Y
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 * t4 h3 P+ k& L8 O1 m
男性讲述金融时报: 6 Z, R* y Z4 R# y& D, @1 p$ N
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
6 `) \6 @* u5 y1 w9 M呆滞的技术面
- e& |3 k* @; ~, m自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
' F- P4 u. V1 ~; s! z) Z" n具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 ) C5 {: v, v, B9 @* O
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
" J) \& m+ r! ?* O8 }' I; E
$ [5 R! m8 u. }编辑切换为居中
. v3 k' J/ ?7 Q+ {5 t: K1 @+ P* G wETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置
) N5 `4 x; f" R4 y, F如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
, H# | i5 P' l& I6 q6 Y% Z交易所的ETH储备正在增加
+ z# a2 }) z# ]6 X) I' ?CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. ( _! E0 x% [9 V
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 " E2 A4 G' d$ k( W
9 W% Y5 z! v/ o6 F" J2 ?
编辑切换为居中 3 |8 i% H, u; [/ J
以太坊外汇储备 * |" G* A. S0 K. i+ O Q
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
, u) l4 W4 K7 r! \0 {( G5 ?; i- {% i来源：金色财经 |
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