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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。+ `4 | }0 j+ s4 }' t; B
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) e) J9 T7 h6 V3 M9 O西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率8 L8 G& p& n( g6 x) F2 [) E1 J
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
& \ i+ [4 N& }8 t$ X1 E
4 i/ g+ p3 h4 W! b4 J1 i" }% x皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 2 @% s& L; q6 R$ {3 x- ?
# w! o, l* \8 [: R很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?8 v% D3 `0 E% S5 C
% x% a( r( j- ^0 o+ {
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!). ~6 F+ b1 K, V/ Q
* l. @% [ V1 b; X9 \3 S
1 k0 L) v0 T1 h9 r. W以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?. Q2 M6 P/ a; S% a& e
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盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。" ]4 t7 f# a$ f" x# W
2 h" {( {; Q# k你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?# p# u- ^" N# d
% B+ O. L4 V H Ka) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
( d9 i( s( t, e# M$ N& g X" _* P. _ Y9 h
正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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) V* m8 x2 S8 o. k( c9 k40%的机会你会收到150元的利润/ S" |+ W5 C; c) Q# D ~5 w
60%的机会你会一无所有0 k7 o6 A; t7 {
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
2 G# C% a& k( _( \- [由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。* k, f$ J9 q- K, j C9 r, ^% {6 P
7 p1 I9 H: c( R* R
增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。; Y5 q6 Z0 c7 M2 E( r# s
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基于增值的投注
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( [0 q- `6 [! L2 G# j4 \凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。: V: P% R8 o6 c; g3 Y
. _6 d$ `5 w/ T v! `/ K& G, x* z
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金
/ E% z3 M+ v6 X1 WP=获胜机会0 u, B. R) Z6 B' B6 c) ?3 s) s
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)5 ]3 D3 v% \1 d8 @! @
% }) y7 x5 z5 h8 a1 s( C
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。; Z( Y9 z) u# I/ f# M5 @3 z
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。 V! K8 u9 s }( { Q
( W& z" H4 ~* A# ~) H/ P; t- ~1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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- c# K- A- R- r+ U1 M7 G6 V( kA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
" G: e' \, @6 g) G
+ {8 _; l! v6 r* `9 x2 qA=0
R# p3 v' @" x6 D! Y* C3 Y
( c. h) D' b: ]# f结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢. _" [ r& n: U; O. i
. P$ U6 m l: S5 D5 Y2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)3 @, g$ K0 P, P3 }
& H; u( s! z& ?! x6 c9 s0 uA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2): D5 \% `5 a7 n
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A=0.1
9 C' s) z$ U+ s: E" g
# B6 }3 k0 M6 H9 E0 Z/ H结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去; F5 l( {$ ~* d7 Y
" e7 F8 @4 a" x2 u4 J) F8 T8 n- h
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)2 a- f5 @: |0 M, m2 u i4 C7 W: i
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 / [: y K$ C% P' t' K! p7 B
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好! E: x+ b$ H/ c( C a: o
" w: y) z, W H第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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