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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。2 ?# m5 | |" j, ]" }
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/ w" {: Y1 L/ O( g6 V西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率" w& y9 H% t3 _; p; k- Y' C0 _
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% - [3 ?$ M8 E$ M8 e
1 b+ l8 G. e( b- f/ L很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?6 a: j7 L! |6 R y. Q7 h1 o' e! p
3 [2 b% V1 a" Y
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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9 M* u( S# R; B! l2 T( z3 c# z
盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值: ^5 V' I; r! s* h
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 : y$ p8 I% E, |8 e
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么' d5 D% l' j% } K5 j7 N" U
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& L3 _$ m0 w( X) V
60%的机会你会一无所有( d; j Z4 b9 b+ c' _) o4 S1 [
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
9 ?3 _5 M. O, {8 X由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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: f& J9 v8 x( y R0 X增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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* p5 C& d: o. y2 p- V% M; O基于增值的投注
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& o7 l4 ?# Q! w1 z# e2 c凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。+ V3 w% o* t4 H# u0 f2 S
+ H( O( O6 i" d3 W$ |! Q公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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+ Q5 m: {6 V6 j4 `7 hA=博彩资金2 {" o& @1 O8 _$ ?; i3 ]; {
P=获胜机会
. _3 b5 h' [( D' m2 lO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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) }0 D! l( `% O) T) y首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。. B6 R8 P: X! c6 f8 {: }+ x
4 i2 v7 g4 J; \# _& {好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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) Y2 }8 @& j1 z3 L( m1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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5 [% e. D, r( U- a& d; T; o结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)4 v* H. T' U' F5 `! P6 F" s
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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9 x J4 a/ m- m$ lA=0.13 J- `* [& N/ L. H( U
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去, p4 E4 k" `+ U2 s' O0 x
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)! B. b/ t j* C& r6 d
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A= -0.2
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+ t& U! Z0 P" b3 A+ |结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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