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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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, {1 r2 y( u9 ^& j+ V/ P以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:5 P) T2 z$ w" W0 ]

% j* F) g$ i: ]8 X6 ]) |, c) {皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% 9 E" B6 s# |% E' A- c/ v
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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  I# S7 L# I# U7 l) d/ n6 R答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)1 Z. \* W$ j: L; \

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# Y) C5 X, A: ~# s4 B以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?: L. c( Z. i9 t3 V, C

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盈利可能性) j# @$ W  `7 L/ f

# I$ Q8 ^1 c. c  K对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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, K8 a3 A& M. Y: W% p+ H' }! A1 ^增值
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6 V( P4 q3 I. _$ F* j许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 * f8 }$ ?1 [' d) ~( `

4 {# V. s/ z! ^+ U$ s0 B" G3 k) c  U% q正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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; y1 y$ Z' L" I7 x. e40%的机会你会收到150元的利润4 O+ M* I7 }& K" O# R6 B* k
60%的机会你会一无所有6 m) [* e# ~0 {+ y9 N
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
3 e1 K& P- L* S, h0 W' W9 S/ u由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。6 W# V8 |. ^( h2 }3 J2 [2 H, v( u/ ^
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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基于增值的投注2 A# b# J$ {/ s, c5 ]
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。8 @, W( b- S7 [/ l, Y# }
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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" m8 q6 i# m9 V! k% g+ `# yA=博彩资金
8 ?$ N6 c8 d- A/ B. [: O6 V! RP=获胜机会( _: d- W6 ?. h! e7 C
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)! r; y. T9 ~- y5 I

/ V7 r4 t! @  n8 M6 O7 C$ n' I首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)4 \2 b# X; w, H* Z9 B! c" `% |

) j0 _% z. h' L5 q* {A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)) G( F" O9 S- z

0 p: z( q, w; aA=0* q  z9 v) k( b/ `
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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' e* Y1 o; C: J( ?; q8 L+ I$ z# n2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)9 `9 t$ J  V! i, Y/ S) U

6 H; U. b/ w+ Y, M  KA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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9 _# R5 L3 j1 c3 M$ iA= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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