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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 # V. V& p, s7 t# ]
5 ?( _% T, ^5 a P$ A7 v8 G
其实原文标题不是这样的9 J3 F8 D) b% b0 P( P
5 X4 j# x; }+ \1 H& g! v这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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8 v1 }$ {! N7 R& X7 n) u
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...# S! ?/ Z1 z8 C4 P( S3 F
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
+ D- |! o( q9 V$ _3 m) d
9 x1 ~6 Y. U) B4 } 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。6 z" B8 J4 R& Z
8 c- _+ C1 h" Z/ F2 O3 C' w1 z' @
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
! W% l8 i+ K5 A5 O/ `) T' [) I# v - G7 ?' X m% F8 a+ c
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 " R2 Z7 Y) _) c6 {! {# k. M, f# m
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」: |3 B/ n6 I8 Y" `( K
8 L" L' s: G+ e5 d V7 X2 J
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。, I# w( O$ y+ C; M/ h4 n% X
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，- v; P5 x- q2 v i) A, u" r p% x
因此铜板较容易出现正面。9 Z) \- X5 N% [, y: f
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
, k' N8 r8 e6 q- t% S$ Y因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
5 K6 k2 F3 C3 p1 J1 ~ ~心想赢定了。9 f# @4 q$ C) ?
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，
! T+ D/ ^. t$ l6 W$ i) E& |; V5 s- Q赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」$ P& ?3 ?* F8 u x; ^
^: R; S( r& @4 {
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，: ~; Q: A: c$ |9 c
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。& _8 g ~% o5 O J! v
! J& B r" j" [5 O* F) t) o& T赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
" `, N$ V/ A5 x1 Z- ~) `1 W他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道： x! [% Q/ L: D! v M7 r8 b) f6 ]0 }
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
2 E1 \1 |. g9 `3 c' t「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
. {0 _) [9 b/ Y; a' ~6 P「而不是先发生在我身上。」0 Y, {* H$ C% [7 ~# D
0 L) F5 p9 [5 V( K# n2 v 赌徒恍然大悟，( T p( m. I( H" m' b4 x
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，- j0 e' s2 \9 W
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！: b0 A! _- ?; u5 ^2 p
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」9 e9 l0 H/ Y! Q5 _7 v5 m# _( C
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，) K2 t* W0 D, H+ M' l
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，# T- d& l1 [2 p! {" H: p! l
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，# E- q" ^, b) C+ P: `, @/ ?, W
对赌徒十分有利。
6 c! Z6 p9 b6 F0 ?/ I7 p
6 h3 G) Z/ w; O但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
. y5 d+ e% C* Q- s+ D ^' H( D在还没掷到1000次之前，7 }3 J* V' W( Q. T9 w D! W
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
& `9 G4 Q: s6 \! E8 Q
+ S: O, p: H* J. L$ h# E 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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' k" V0 C5 W. ]( _# p! t# W 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
! h9 @* d. V7 l2 O6 f
6 Z9 _. ?. r5 n& b5 H9 l$ I 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
- r8 {# V! m0 z$ {3 N4 A2 K/ O9 s5 E
" H. m- _, \3 ^9 }8 s' j 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ 5 B4 P/ |0 r, ^8 P1 f" w
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