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[lastpost] => 2808304 比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束（转） 1771763809 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。) z7 b- b. I% V; o) r ]/ q% |
* L5 J+ D! L. e' j# J但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。* w! [$ |3 A. f0 b7 O
0 Q; N7 J2 d+ n" UUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
1 y4 R. w( E! i' C( i7 L' Z2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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来源：Alphractal9 T @- H T1 O& f: O
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。$ c# U, \3 |% U9 W+ G
; U" A8 {+ S" g% a. k0 k尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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: v; K8 L8 m' t9 u: A9 B8 v! P事情变得有趣了# k, s2 l- P* @; o' k
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。- I' }9 z, E; ~3 i" y# y
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来源：X
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) r, Z. T) K: i根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。! D# ]; r4 w% w* S9 g. b
& V4 \& F9 e) `BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。/ M9 J2 M; R- r) R! k( X$ n
+ d) T) ]0 d0 Q( \8 R正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。/ ~% `9 X+ c& F4 e
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
) L' b( x0 x! @6 B/ `6 N经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。. C; u! l; o6 s- m" z6 d8 O
$ G( @7 O( Y' q u# n: U( o2 b0 N来源：TradingView: F0 X% G4 C2 l, O
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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2 R: f$ {" O! L% C% A! f+ V然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。/ Y+ e) a2 ?. _+ r- g
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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