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小分3种情况:
4 i, z c3 e; \: m; P2 b
3 m- u% A" V; o1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
/ k& L4 S& \# Q/ a9 ]
l% M( g' i' V; @2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。0 ~% E W' e8 Y3 |! M0 Z" ]6 @
5 n3 n q. k3 E" E1 Q7 V4 W
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。+ T# i4 w2 x0 |+ D* ]: B6 ^
. J1 k( K. P' T9 a {0 J4 H, Y2张牌8或9点的情况有:! B0 d1 d. w* o4 K S: _
) x4 X! v! S. h8 w1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
6 o9 N) F$ G) P. b+ t) e9 W/ h. k- E* W9 I0 a5 `
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415$ J1 Q" R" Y+ F7 [! K8 @) e
% c9 f. p, b, ]! }
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
& N5 y- @+ m$ g8 I5 R
$ ]' V" q) E S) c3 {) a# p8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415! ?* O/ U* H2 x1 S
& [& K" P9 j+ c8 u+ D
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
' q0 @4 v7 A7 k K
3 G5 f% ^6 c$ a( i+ I通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
' y9 `# X9 q1 S- H: t' j; _
3 \( m1 e0 [/ _/ B8 V1 G/ c- A; C那么我们可以得出
. Y" N" e/ q2 x* V' g9 y+ V5 X
+ C) r1 M& c* d! P& h6 H1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
( r" O* e) i$ x; p
0 k1 `% l9 v, q K- e1 J2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 8 f/ y9 W6 h# ]! j8 L5 ^3 e* Q
2 Z% X7 F9 ?* Q4 ~, ~! P3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854917 m$ w2 Z9 Z3 N" b
2 l2 d2 { u# v& I: `$ I
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
+ s6 m# m. R' P: p* A. @% Q% Q
& C i0 z7 B7 L2 p p; j0 Z百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306774 `. H) r! ?" `! ?
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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