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小分3种情况:! ]$ @) a, z5 {( Q; N1 K" N' A4 f
- D/ i1 g" N/ S, y+ J3 n3 j1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。0 P) f9 k6 e1 R4 U: e1 T
7 g; d7 N0 c y2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
6 E2 ]3 \+ R+ G# E8 p) p" |/ |$ _# j. [% d
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
R9 W1 R% A; b( q/ r& F9 f9 o/ O
2张牌8或9点的情况有:% L4 _5 w, t7 A. h1 W3 R
+ f9 j. ~& {! c$ G0 b- i1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+105 z: v# u8 Y5 S/ O) Z
7 N3 j* W; z, {3 X8 ~1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4153 b$ ?1 o0 J5 L- v; B# L
; h* Z/ g9 o3 [6 W% M& k4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
5 _) o, l4 f6 h# [7 _) C, U& U5 U8 E+ w& E
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
4 z/ \4 s- Q9 `5 ?
+ A( { Q- p4 ~7 W- s1 o( U由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。4 z: }) ^9 {2 D* n D: d
. h' }5 ^5 g; b& Q: _2 F
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
/ Q& I: f" F& ]
" u4 Z4 d9 `+ S0 i% L' y那么我们可以得出
1 q ~ u1 r6 w& ^2 z3 t. l# ~5 D
4 m2 r! X$ _" w4 T! @, s" G0 D: l1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
; U, k- Y0 Q/ j3 E6 w: i+ G; ^1 F8 s+ u2 O+ ^
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 + X: q( W( M+ a: y0 j; x) Z+ Y
8 V. a1 R$ O& \$ U3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491! ?& ?( U9 s) s$ J% m" D
/ @# W: `5 \5 `# h2 t/ o所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693230 }: l$ W& s4 r; X7 _6 w
; s& F% G! m* x' P' h百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306776 O0 [8 N2 g- a- @% M
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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