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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 4 \/ [* e" z! p$ o4 O4 A
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其实原文标题不是这样的) J. H0 L9 |% v6 p4 z' [
& m, j- u5 P `5 B这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
6 T7 O s1 y/ x9 l( v0 ^- `他希望能和上帝来场赌局。4 e' b) X/ r9 l; ~% F! H
+ ?; g# \' f0 J0 u1 u1 f 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
6 z/ u i+ X0 k) |# |# a9 _+ q/ ]% [# K6 K3 n0 U: x/ v/ B! W8 I' T
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」5 P& Q! K1 V4 c: a# s; V5 H
: N, H; N9 T9 M2 h9 A N9 p5 J1 ]「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 4 M$ ~2 U( ~# ?" W# a7 a
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
; d- \# y, _1 {$ t! L6 `% |1 O: M. J1 n" o( k, |5 w
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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+ g/ A5 P7 S' G( W接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，9 S3 Q4 |8 d, _8 s1 z/ R( [% e
因此铜板较容易出现正面。/ _3 I7 c( A1 F6 j' q! P
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
( N7 W: o: [2 B2 |2 G5 v% a因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
, d$ k6 p/ Y9 `% F% w心想赢定了。
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, y: S6 F. _% H* z没想到开始不到半刻钟，
8 o. k3 L+ P0 t/ h9 q赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」4 w. ~8 S6 f' U/ m2 B# A
. K, n: w7 h: [' @6 T赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，! J8 W5 V/ B6 H% J
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。3 J$ }% d' A; {% @+ s
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
7 X& S8 E6 t' j他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 ' P- d3 m8 D$ R
上帝回答道：
% N, Q: L6 l# T& [4 K3 ]「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」% k. m) A# ]2 d5 l1 a) J$ G
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」9 K2 k7 \& B5 X/ v$ T) z9 M% T
「而不是先发生在我身上。」 k7 ^2 D/ r: n' b
* i7 X+ \2 T8 {9 E) j9 s2 E$ t: s/ O 赌徒恍然大悟，
% q; c. M# \ x原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
! D8 S, v4 \" }8 M& d0 t, p竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！- u+ i0 V! ^& e, L {* ?4 ~1 n
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
' ^+ j* I7 ~4 C) Z' ~" n上帝说完便不见踪影。 , a0 K2 [% G6 N7 m. Y! v" u
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，+ ]) D4 ~ {) h- s' i
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
2 D& p: J0 o2 {1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，. Q! K$ O; F$ g' t0 D
对赌徒十分有利。, z$ U. e/ U' @' ^( E: ]
0 S7 G- B- ^: S! U6 J但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
( [/ K* M. I$ h8 p在还没掷到1000次之前，
3 f, X2 C9 ]% S2 G仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。1 _# ~* x7 x9 B7 A3 j2 a. m( s
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。& m" W# `4 X* r/ B# B7 o% C
( Q, ^( D2 S V 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，6 n0 I" s7 U( t1 ^+ X$ q, |: X
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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