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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
) n# s. t$ _6 O2 T8 F以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
6 U. Z& a4 u9 C4 N# p& ^& [此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 - j1 w+ a& |, b) ]* x
以太坊基金集体亏损 , B! n( H* W3 E1 J- d" G' h% q
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 9 |9 k; C) @9 F7 n$ b. \! L
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
% L) r6 W h. a& h& H4 x7 A与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
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2 F% @, q) L6 z: V# B( f编辑切换为居中 4 E8 z0 `6 I; |, M
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
# w8 K4 C6 C) M) I1 {这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 ! q; Z7 h- b/ T8 D, h, l
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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编辑切换为居中
# E! {8 e$ i- B8 C6月5日的TVL以太坊
" S+ A. J) Y5 a9 }但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
3 ~' h) U$ F- A' @宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 ) h8 B* f& o3 v F: \" C+ @
男性讲述金融时报: # R, Y4 R, G& f5 O3 G; E, j: c
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
5 r; D% I/ p/ C9 f8 W呆滞的技术面 ! j$ F9 J t$ V4 A1 D7 |
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 9 a+ X. q& A p0 o4 c' [' Q/ X4 Z
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
% ]5 Q8 C& x: J% R2 H" X根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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- f# v* j0 g: V- O5 a编辑切换为居中 5 S) j% }6 S- j9 E! f
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 7 X& e* ?' u* Z: t
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 1 ]: y9 R6 {8 X& h# c$ m
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
, @# ~4 u `( zCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出.
4 g! q; j, y+ u8 Y2 G( ]3 `: ~自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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* `% |% A) @ a8 D# `编辑切换为居中
1 }! N, b$ B0 k- i ], a0 G s以太坊外汇储备
" N. q5 w- U. Q! Z l* X- H. u# F通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。
4 Y( ~) n* ^; t. G: t$ `$ I来源：金色财经 |
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