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[lastpost] => 2783374 全球资本市场遭遇“黑色星期五”，加密市场 38 万人被爆仓 1763715837 当你老了
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人/ {: M, U7 i8 i& j/ ~
; A) W6 I B7 Z9 U% f" c# |认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界， n1 l, _1 d4 e0 |2 z
1 j' I4 A( o% c' I2 x而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富) Z3 }/ d5 C. A0 g
: \- }, K* A7 i. H6 n0 I+ R的千禧一代。/ ^: d' ~, d* a- U( M+ [" i9 h1 C
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
1 H7 n4 I' h9 X$ @/ L+ H9 f1 G
3 l; _ [/ a+ c, L: r1 K的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“9 F" q* A5 h9 J3 F% a* _
* Y- L5 ?1 o1 ]. X- }8 h 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
1 w( ?! ^4 ]+ O' r) l" V' j& H
' V% m/ r7 `( w+ F5 S+ c& v密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据. ^3 ]8 W* I6 Q$ a& v" l
/ }( h& E. j2 X, L9 k《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
! U7 f$ t# O8 {, u9 N: ~# i0 w
; V, U; K! D! |) _3 h的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》 r4 _2 e5 p R3 m, T/ ^2 E7 E
! v, K1 b" i' D7 d) q! H) T
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；- ^: k8 l; H0 g( B/ _& v4 v
) d9 {6 V7 h9 `+ U: |2 f7 E1 r10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为' O; i4 ]- ^2 F3 {' u- r K5 S
, i! j7 I; R+ [3 A) L* j. c: ~ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。4 o$ E& |* ?1 L
6 |* [3 Y/ T t1 b) R2 F" i' F据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降- N2 o3 j" Z4 E4 ?. b- I' [
, p0 U6 ]% o2 G* S: i% r息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
9 ]/ q. k1 d! `: Y
4 m0 k* _8 ?1 j4 t6 @, d% R与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
# i6 o' K5 O# V* w0 v% A; d5 G+ ^* a# V0 f6 A! Q
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
. K- ~1 F( Y. O/ Z& g
! C' V" A9 O- `传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
4 }: Y% q- D( }1 P; {: l/ e4 ^4 B6 u6 j ?: a' g1 E
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一+ f8 c, \: j1 t: K$ ]
$ u B4 w- q! {& i2 ?! ?代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成8 j% g1 c7 a( N u) H, I
. D7 Y& E d2 L* W( |
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
0 t, b9 F8 X5 ~0 N T6 P) Q2 P! d- g( |5 e, [
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货, X. V& ^& O, ]' h$ F
8 b3 t" U* j# [! k币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致* H& Q. g/ _, p! k
6 P5 J" o/ |2 j& B未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富3 q/ @+ h' o& b) j& z; C
+ r3 `7 [% b$ G3 ?- K) y( u/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。
+ A1 v2 I# j0 B6 B
! u9 {6 S/ |: a6 ^! p+ B) Z5 F$ F! ^* u- c; q5 V0 H; M
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