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[lastpost] => 2767464 币圈首个「去中心化保险」如何形成买盘飞轮?(转) 1758390615 caoch
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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! p, A1 `1 x; l% b6 Y- q9 E过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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?+ d# L5 g) O2 `" i" g) TCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。' [1 @, y" R3 E! n0 ^3 b3 X
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;) k( E* P, \' E- O5 K! W. A/ Q
/ O b" g; a: M+ X微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
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# ]5 |6 G3 u2 C% sETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。+ F! G9 E/ u! ] j* x& O+ |7 I
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比特币价值回归:
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5 g5 @: O" t" @, x+ [, v0 b, [$ Z市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
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随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。. r+ K5 S# v/ R
1 x3 D' r: ?' V' d0 Y加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。# p- \" g1 e! l' E9 c, Z% u: t3 ^
9 r5 n& t/ W; t; A0 {0 F3. 市场热点与反弹情况& h; E+ a- q3 @6 z
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& o9 ]4 X2 f0 y( _2 T9 \虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。" g. J) x! N' L" u
( w2 h6 Z! a4 o9 n6 n机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
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0 K/ K0 r( ~+ w2 z% XBTC:
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6 E" i& [$ c, [ T% i" B4 j尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。9 G& I0 q# p' D, r. O
; G2 h: G/ T) ~如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。+ [. d5 I$ w7 T0 p, v/ B! z
- o! C* }3 h6 w! x/ g/ p* Q s) HSOL与XRP:
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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7 O$ L/ E$ o3 Q3 u6 D- N- z1 FXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 X) r5 t, y' g* A3 H5 `
6 o) b: n4 h$ O2 Z其他热点项目:
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" V! }4 ^( g" c7 {. d涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。* z/ G% X% }! t- c) g% s& Z
7 J% D8 D+ j& N山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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4. AI赛道与新兴项目
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" [) T7 W6 ~: P5 N$ \AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
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5 s4 _" u; @ S/ Z7 P7 `" T' `; z' B蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。; I5 }6 l" _) P" H
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新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望* [) ` J: h/ R9 J
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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