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[lastpost] => 2807920 比特币和山寨币100倍加密货币回报的时代已经结束(转) 1772255604 小作文
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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5 l! O# q- [6 ?PPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。
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" R0 V& K* C) Q; c" R8 c! ICPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。
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" B* v3 S& I7 j% ? J1 ?2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期; `9 w8 w, C7 s4 W7 g6 Z* I4 r% R7 E
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当前持仓成本:
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8 j# C! d6 a2 z" H; ~3 _; o机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;& G, a4 g* I1 A7 c$ K
: R- S3 q: S( f! y* E微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;1 X+ M" l) q) I" H$ o# o- v
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ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。
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7 I" h; C* N) q/ d" C$ h+ Q! \比特币价值回归:
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。% {3 I: P b: |8 \; l! }: b3 o
2 N9 b( [) b: V5 l$ {! C1 [& U- E/ V随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。7 r# C: W; g/ Q2 l
( X$ |& I- W, @加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。0 X+ D' b+ O' g: a9 L' v' @$ B' t
) w: g; g! L+ p) x9 p1 o& `8 O3. 市场热点与反弹情况
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6 `+ Z) Y+ u. g3 n9 ]" u2 d+ z5 {5 }虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。5 c4 M' z7 x3 d1 e5 Z o
# C6 H, J$ U6 z: b& R2 |机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。; x. l" R* q$ l1 k* f2 O( z
6 u) v' }5 R6 h3 Q' u; gBTC:
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。$ U3 P( Z( t2 X8 S" v4 `8 P" K0 F& \
2 Q- Z) A9 v2 l如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。) X+ R! H0 z2 s+ d% p
0 z( E. `* n! N, Z. cSOL与XRP:. _- W: t$ S7 g4 l' a; K
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SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。 Y3 S3 ]9 H, E6 O1 c# ?/ M' p
/ m7 P. h- ?- D' ]XRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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6 V$ b+ d! M0 [5 _其他热点项目:3 K8 P; X# a9 l. J3 U2 S
- d' {. @: F6 H# v7 c# F+ r涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。) Q( J7 G2 k. R% D7 B+ ~ @
9 J6 _& ]+ C! d" s4 u" ^山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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2 _. q1 @$ g8 W( F6 W! b- V' M* J3 [4. AI赛道与新兴项目/ A* F' {2 S9 a
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。& z3 E# t* J, k, b
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。- ]1 U/ L' w0 `8 s2 B
$ i- L# |& O3 l# M新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。4 K' g& B$ X! L8 b' R5 F
$ O6 Z5 S) u5 p0 ]# L# y市场展望
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随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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