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小分3种情况:
; ~7 Q* a4 f6 ^7 ]0 q/ \6 Y
- c" }, P3 A- G3 C$ Z- r1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
+ V! l7 Z5 D5 v
4 k4 o+ ~4 C7 r {# R2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。7 s7 D. J/ E) c
7 s) M4 v3 o( r3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
$ L8 u9 D' O! ^8 z6 c1 q- y9 v# h& `& C" U: a8 _9 J; @
2张牌8或9点的情况有:( I8 g! G5 T6 l8 K* |
1 e; t9 B7 H0 Y+ p' C. A
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
9 H% |! a) Q M9 t' I$ k- o! z1 z, b: c
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4157 z: M8 ] X; W) v6 G# n: _
# l- _" e4 H$ |* n4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
6 w) g3 x. W% X4 C3 N1 _
5 s0 I2 z) t: K' s8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4151 ~: d% h3 ~3 C
' X2 g! `) V! c% `; m+ r2 q! B
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
$ Q( e9 z! n+ _ |
5 u0 y& _' c( B& y" h通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
4 o }7 z* q; A
) W4 m# A6 Q& D那么我们可以得出
: F1 Q9 S8 k1 J1 g
' N' H4 I# p4 A% i/ b1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662$ X; z/ w1 F5 U# ^3 f
# g* u3 M+ O$ U+ P1 u2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 0 H( N$ u$ ~5 N
& h# u& e& I& I! }: R0 p3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491 `. V3 E4 l' A" ]; @1 G
0 i' B$ q" j- L) {- T# |) l
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323/ r" V/ m' m3 ^5 o
: Q6 S( X/ P: @- F( C: }$ d( U7 j
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677) W& S" V# s3 x2 |1 H
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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