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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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: G' Q8 g* A' I6 S西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率% C8 O" X& p* d( H' R! Z" O

$ ]7 K1 w8 B# i- o! |以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:1 c5 E% ]& X! Y0 u8 V+ n5 k1 W5 R

1 ^6 ]% f& W$ V0 a. {9 |皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
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盈利可能性
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+ T1 h' o+ v1 R, l# S3 l对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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+ H; f, \- @. I( ~' ~) f0 O增值
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2 E+ b! T, t( v& B7 e! Q许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。0 Y2 m3 d' T1 O( A/ }

: M$ l  z9 e" u7 c你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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, f9 z0 i% d' }0 j' y# f8 Ua) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么  A% ]: j; e$ H# Q
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
$ g* L0 c9 a6 A# U60%的机会你会一无所有
3 P" @! s( R/ r0 A- a: R预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
9 f# \% e1 v# |' r由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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- x( g/ W$ t! t  f8 W增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。2 M2 O2 T' m( \* h" f
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基于增值的投注
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5 L# ^( j  R4 L; c  t0 T1 k/ F0 T凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)$ G; {+ t$ I. I+ b+ O7 ~9 m5 {
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A=博彩资金
' C4 U; y" Q, Y) X2 FP=获胜机会
# x) x! L. w( g- Q2 BO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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4 J* J" v3 G. j6 k. {8 c9 _首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0
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9 o9 u* j1 C+ ?! g+ o7 I结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)/ s7 t+ k- O7 h0 Z: w0 a

+ }) o& j2 G4 N. A# Z* j! f" J* |9 lA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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+ {7 n; N8 ?7 }$ C3 d2 G+ nA=0.1
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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) v) K& _5 K1 Q- u0 [3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好/ ], o: C  S+ e! {( g" h0 ^% K( M

) s8 [9 l- M- a) l* Y第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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