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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、
# B/ j3 Q4 w% h* F0 W2 ]余勋也不例外、
+ ^+ K0 G. K. a7 j3 g$ Y$ o其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 . o+ v% E- F+ |' s0 o# Q
是保经济的重要决策！ ' a% }$ F& Y! @- a8 ~) G5 Y& \# p
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
/ r+ j8 S5 x7 N% r5 ?6 A低点26700-32400、 3 z& {( C8 E0 Y5 @! ~2 R0 M
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
; E' [4 R) ]7 M5 A6 J但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
, E. U% A. w q. Y. a% _9 T& R* \大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。
! T& }3 ?# \& U9 N; E; e7 |涨幅就已回撤过半！
7 O/ `* H$ D# E/ e, I; V3 S所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
" z, M# ]. R2 }8 I2 Y! P* _不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ( l5 r- @ d" r T& j, ?8 V
其次、 3 k* H) a+ j0 U* p& ?6 a \
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
% M7 W: O+ b; f" W每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
2 ?( d. j% n, \/ w, D) S- }/ @+ _等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 * K' A4 v1 W" O" G/ l b
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
/ S- K+ p0 t1 f" T* V |: D但回到币圈、 * d( A, C8 d1 }1 I( W& u
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 2 X* q/ ~& C5 x* R0 _; {2 I. u
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
- J3 ?/ u F8 _$ H9 |而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 8 S) m! o) q& X) g
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
1 q" t' N+ ?/ K+ l% O. Y$ T缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 / X$ B' r) c4 R& X
对当前的底部、影响有限。 3 g4 R. g+ n0 k9 X5 A
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。
5 a1 v& o. W- J所以27000、即是 / t6 i* B; N. u2 ~" ]% F& h7 g" N
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） 8 T! Y* T+ M" U
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 . k" }/ }0 F& k2 Z
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
7 t. l" y' h4 W2 f) V( z由此得出的结论是、
' l7 m; e b: B) u/ J加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。
& K% l4 D* C* c, }) [2 }点位不会出现太大偏离。 : H# H: v* O! I& p4 o
综合以上、 : d5 {6 e. i+ K; Q7 r$ u
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 $ \2 P5 c9 k. G# M2 O; v0 k/ D! i
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
1 D% M: }0 b2 E$ C4 B% P那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
, f1 s4 O7 J+ ^ } g抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
% M' D9 _" X2 i* s z9 u/ Q# e9 u那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 : H; S2 j: e3 A, q/ L2 @' m
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。 0 A* T& K( X& l& u6 g
美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
4 @. o& U+ Z: x9 P# A1 P. S夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 . ^" d# U1 O, h ?- m
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
) `- E- c# E- Z, B- S9 h逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 # G$ S1 [: W+ G; u! C$ \
高空需至31700-32000间布局、 1 I# R' n! a3 x
反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、 " c/ P) A8 I" o% }# o' d
得不偿失。
0 ]* l+ S8 h6 l' [3 I# `来源：金色财经 |
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