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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 ; {$ e0 t/ X1 y; J. C8 C6 c
余勋也不例外、
& O) f+ N I+ N E3 ^! Y其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 : T6 ~5 N7 p f4 r) \6 r
是保经济的重要决策！ 4 ^6 m$ ^ |3 |* n6 z* a3 T& G
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 + q& Q. W; U, k9 Q
低点26700-32400、
2 E: }5 J5 e6 u反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。 9 y& f( F1 B, G7 U$ I% X
但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、 ) p L# g! A3 R; [3 M# M) B1 ^
大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 : p U6 i9 i1 U
涨幅就已回撤过半！ . Q: n: @: O6 G
所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。 % Q: J" h2 f5 t: f6 u
不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。
7 T. ^& a6 f6 d. k其次、 2 I8 ]6 ^+ |2 o0 |& B8 f) V8 S
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 % j u. h* O( F J. w8 d
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、
9 P- l) ?& Y- O+ J- X; x, t等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。 % ~& I+ N- O1 k5 \6 ~ L, n- m
美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 3 J* |, ]1 E* A1 I' l& K
但回到币圈、 4 d, q# Y- b8 g ~
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
2 ?3 e5 _' Q$ |1 _7 `/ U在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。
4 C- O" q1 [; E- H" n1 u而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。 & U3 x# [6 z! k0 Z0 _/ p/ N* O4 T
个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
4 |4 `8 j; H2 p4 O$ N缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
; |: ]! Z) g: i' m6 w3 `对当前的底部、影响有限。
" m9 V4 m) |1 `" I最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 6 E2 O1 p3 ^+ W/ _$ c; Z
所以27000、即是 - K f4 u$ [# J7 b6 ^; p1 s, v
去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
6 X X+ `, G" w5 }同时还是去年放水初期低点、
, ?" I N& U% _也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
' C& c6 L7 Z* {4 [8 K) H* l/ U由此得出的结论是、 7 G( O% f4 Z( f6 t3 d2 ^/ W
加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 # H/ d8 B" F* ^
点位不会出现太大偏离。
5 Z4 E$ R) t1 k' z综合以上、 2 p. O/ f& h& v6 c5 a+ C( L
美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
& v; Y+ f3 [7 I5 i8 C2 h9 V在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 " |0 [" |5 I; q# [6 e& }+ g' w
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 / N5 Y4 \# s: e% y
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
3 [9 ^% b2 |9 B+ [% I: K% B% l那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 + Q0 S3 ^1 f1 E% e# y+ V2 X
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
# h8 b! R2 x1 g) \美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ) |- X% }) C7 X2 i% v K( A
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
+ v; Q+ `* f. E H f大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、 * m. }% C- D6 H0 ?
逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
* P# [" N$ A: V2 ]' h1 B5 F) M高空需至31700-32000间布局、
. Q" S3 ?$ q4 a* ~2 i反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
, O+ M& f7 A4 k; n' N. n7 z( F# X得不偿失。
. L* v; q5 k+ r: w8 M来源：金色财经 |
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