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# ]: ^6 {2 H) s. E8 F( o% |
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
; i. D @1 Z; F L! xDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
; }* f% R" m, v% j9 G( R7 n衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。
( I. h+ I6 e9 [) u% J. B0 L" A- {一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
3 j! ?& M0 J5 T8 A+ J- F: {8 ZBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。1 l7 G! V9 _* L$ [- ~' P Z, A' @
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：( w4 P2 L. U5 z! Q. _6 A
2024年4月第四次减半
: z* t' ?4 m9 {6 l% e机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
: c1 x4 N4 s. X3 Y( y- T可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
0 |( B6 G5 i6 U( S9 a. B/ |5 E2 g针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。- U) ~( }" a: B0 R% F% s
二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
+ q) s; S1 I7 b mfriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
' S/ s( u( V' |Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
" i( n2 J$ _- E/ m2 F& c诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
3 U7 j2 }& w9 g: s, E三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁 w' H( Z- p1 p' q! }
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
! q, t' y5 D3 e' ~+ k8 j5 A" \金融(TradFi)产品。3 J P/ P( C; E6 V( f
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
3 ]1 G1 h$ Y& E9 y6 Z) ~5 Y链桥」的项目。
* k& n% v0 S' L9 a" J四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
. {7 n# ]+ W7 T" k& @$ m模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作" t& t" G7 ~% I
等。+ u! q9 W$ U" U1 K$ u3 I
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
$ |+ B# T1 [3 b$ ^. `在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
3 O; Y( q1 `4 p6 d7 V& h u% N五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN- P& [ |% Z/ R8 k1 c0 A8 o
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
: }# {3 q6 D) V数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。) r- v4 R y# {) e
Pantera点名了几个项目： p, F1 F, q3 z2 G$ X; ~$ h
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图6 w2 A, `" `, g, b6 S& R
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
. v: c e7 r' L6 I& [& O' U7 D0 DModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
4 w/ O0 ~& @0 ] [( YThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划
8 U% t% Y/ p9 B2 e2 u. MRealmsverse：Starknet上的链游. ?1 C2 m8 t6 X3 G
六、小型公链需专注特定应用# H8 f; n2 }4 b% s l
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚) a$ o, k3 f6 D1 }. N
至能直接与L2竞争。
. C$ r9 W) U s6 K1 \也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。% w- t- q5 E# Z/ V5 g4 C6 o
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
4 P; x* M U0 T/ j6 s成为「应用链」。) C$ v) j, P4 |
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。$ }& h/ s4 X% a5 c+ _9 h
& G9 |2 Q; K) a- i
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