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7 I1 S* j2 Q$ B3 {& z- F9 X
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为: Y* `6 i7 w; j: d5 `4 M: x
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，& T) _/ [( \' t9 } a
衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。* w# T* B* G( b! g
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
! R* V K: W2 SBTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。4 T" d E/ } C; A) M
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：( p( N' o) Y; E2 i9 {, T% o
2024年4月第四次减半
& D* m: K6 \3 a. R& ^/ ^机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
! p3 Z0 t( j/ j可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)
' R4 {; L% p% H% k针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
+ C3 O7 a1 H/ E' a6 B二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务3 U+ h, q4 p) I( a# {9 D p
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
# _5 Z3 f/ W7 n9 HPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠$ B5 J: v/ O/ C W4 v1 |
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
. T. ]# |# b! F. I三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁, V5 g8 P' N% v! Y! c0 ^+ \7 c- m
除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统$ u: \( ]% W; w# q: v6 g; P5 [
金融(TradFi)产品。
# c; n. Z V4 X# V4 u如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨% C: m4 h+ B4 W# n$ X
链桥」的项目。
0 @, v' [0 @, H8 K9 f( u- j, S3 m0 t四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉7 o% [, J) P) h5 _4 }" X: l
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
6 d! ]9 g$ ?* p" p* P. x等。
, n$ M- K6 ]& l7 A2 ]* H, OPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用" |# [) ]- O1 B8 \+ ^
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。! e N( E& y- ~/ W) Z5 b$ l/ ~ u
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
! M3 G/ P4 k! H& J; N ?Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位3 {- F% I `+ r# e" v+ s7 ^# k
数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。% f- C, q+ b& Y# B
Pantera点名了几个项目：7 d2 d1 x/ t h, W3 e+ D
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图
9 A/ v* \$ w) u* o5 {6 g7 N% ?Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
& Z$ @& P$ q0 yModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
) `2 @/ n) W* l" XThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划8 v7 }9 O/ d) f v4 `
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
k9 i2 Y6 ~" `4 O' M5 r六、小型公链需专注特定应用7 X6 z4 }9 m( {
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
/ e1 o' g6 E8 n" P9 S至能直接与L2竞争。
) h/ S0 [( A+ J4 B8 H也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。' l8 H1 T2 F' ], R! `: K
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
6 P8 B/ n$ k# P- @8 P成为「应用链」。5 ?# u/ I ?7 r: R5 h8 G: W
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。( Z9 @$ v, Z5 M1 F* t9 Q
8 w5 m" P' {6 t
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