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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。# A1 E( h9 h( ]
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。( i+ V" l' T+ B& ~1 y% {; e0 V
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
) S% h+ `, p+ o( Z& M- }4 f+ m1 P, x2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。* q# {2 c9 E" Z' |5 G* Q
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来源：Alphractal- C; D( h6 Q( [' d9 b$ E0 R" [
% @, \0 m" \9 N/ Q7 w% {4 Z2 T15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。) \" {2 b; U" A5 H; l1 w' P! R/ U
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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8 v' |) n7 h& Z9 ]事情变得有趣了7 z. x! F7 q1 y. P+ Q2 B
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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, b- v! N4 k7 R* |$ }$ |/ K' S来源：X
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。1 H7 v$ S& b, {$ K* P$ W
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。! K3 O' D* F' C' V, C
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。9 P# ^6 s+ ?& P
1 s% K' s. E. e) T9 g空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
( s9 u% I Y' l6 n9 Z% \6 n" u经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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V) Q7 x0 D# ^6 A, y来源：TradingView
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& o- @* f$ ?/ |3 y日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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- q4 [$ z6 Q( w ?8 \( F; M/ c然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。2 ^# g" v, M9 V6 k" W5 Q5 L8 H
; S4 G6 b- a: R4 s; m( N突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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