Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1)发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币,回贴+10华小分
2)Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖,Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4)转帖请在主题上标明
5)禁止发布与本版块无关的主题(违反,帖子转移到相关版块,并扣50经验)
6)禁止回复与主题无关的帖子(违反,帖子删除,并扣10经验)
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 271 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
$ j: S. n; M* j. M M- o. w
& [' c6 y* V5 c, ^0 `( c$ C k% o; s% {0 _2 q
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
1 d6 e+ t: v9 p5 l) _6 L- j/ k% e$ W2 a
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:: r% n. j% i4 |* A# i
/ @9 O6 k) n& ?; F
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
0 [. y4 U! }, c0 q: _: J, t/ k k: R$ s* v) i
很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
9 D: r: g% L6 ]0 z2 U3 w _8 r* B/ |4 K# D
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)! d x$ I% v$ ~! M5 A
. l" d: B' N) `) E0 i+ F' Q, g# X
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?
! D7 p' \; @) j7 {0 I: o; X! ]3 \& m; }
& `9 z* W- s) o4 y0 E) ?" t) u
盈利可能性
5 ?" ^7 z# f; j8 k F
6 A: C) u2 }9 A. E7 m7 @对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
# `9 W2 Q1 s1 |& x( m6 u( d, b- S2 {+ s+ \$ \4 X: W! V
增值
0 C. g3 c& A# t [% F/ C* a, {1 L. N0 K2 U) A
许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
0 J* j) m6 H1 x, U) y+ {7 F2 F' U9 y9 D1 ~
你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
1 Z" N" P9 ~( g. D0 z5 y3 {! l
0 E4 `0 n+ ]. s, O" P$ S8 \+ oa) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 9 N/ L/ I) a1 W& @9 ~9 @, e- l
& C( v2 b5 n: F. k! G正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
) p+ Z: ^ T3 R8 `3 }( N% e: y9 f/ o/ P% o( |. H7 ?$ @0 g3 s/ M
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润+ Y7 t3 T: N( O, F
60%的机会你会一无所有5 D+ x7 Y" o( f' `) z
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
# f% D. `3 X' x7 W) g由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
/ y1 R* `4 D( w- L0 I1 F) G
. C7 w3 o; @/ @+ j3 z: M1 l% P5 F增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
& C5 D, |# h% \9 e* U r! J) w4 K! T x4 z
基于增值的投注, E8 S7 y; I2 q. J1 _
3 T, X( x* a1 [2 K
凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。% K- L/ _$ g: R
5 }# p+ f. y4 J
公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
2 B+ j% |! X/ A/ X. N8 B* r& P( h9 D
A=博彩资金
" b J5 o7 V# z8 Y: _P=获胜机会
' T( A6 O* i# ?! ]7 }2 z' |, ZO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)( q" y$ A. ~4 |& g/ N& K* F
6 B2 J! `' [% W4 M0 s0 ]
首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。, e1 G" [7 T- O/ O n
% j7 P) W3 C+ C- W% y& D2 a
好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
4 }, r/ c/ J# N9 n' ]
7 m& p8 k7 ~: i1 O. e1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)5 @/ {- N6 {# S" w1 `5 T
`% D- C' u; A3 n h6 E
A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
3 p0 u& U# h( \1 ?- W% \% U
; F" m% S F3 |" p+ ^* zA=0
7 E& b/ o$ q+ C% q6 u7 }- w; M
3 }! S* i* h$ g% x9 q6 F4 i( ]结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
- I6 `1 {; o5 [, W, a+ o; ?6 w8 m4 m! C; Z7 P: {$ N2 [# C! \
2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)+ e& L0 ?7 R3 X
M" u9 I; T4 c: d# I! }A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
. _6 R( W1 I8 U0 t* `2 z7 E+ O# R# a ~6 k5 ~
A=0.1( e4 T1 ?' T8 d
1 d2 r$ K8 `, \' p* j2 Y/ P+ i结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去/ r) t' N( `& W" e7 O
1 d# x" z& y* r
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
. O3 ]; r+ v& \7 V, j. d) N4 H+ l2 Z" ~ D* m) p' D; }9 `) X- e
A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
, n7 @1 X( n/ w. w3 C' X: ~' l6 L' w3 k+ Q
A= -0.2
; t" |4 g$ B; V4 x5 E+ ] [4 d/ [) ~" U( X2 G
结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好 a8 Z0 n8 b9 E7 s. R C5 Q
9 e6 j9 X% \6 Y4 I& T第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 968 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 800 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 7136 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 4235 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|