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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
& y3 h5 X! ?$ l- W2 d
( P/ S u, I: x8 l其实原文标题不是这样的
: l: D# f8 R. y6 v7 H$ ?6 F3 ]5 B: b+ L1 ]# d. m
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
$ ]; w4 w/ o7 U! t# g7 q# x5 Z+ C; j& N/ ]: u: p
& D6 m6 Q r1 p) q5 e; F
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...$ u6 |- n2 T% i2 o: w0 |
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
3 r8 ?2 ]" x, ?- u( O# Z/ K1 U; B, T2 c
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。/ M, ], a! L7 W7 u
" r5 O% i! d0 F, y+ n7 m1 f 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」. R+ p- ]- V: I4 X+ l( Y h
) {8 J- A5 t! {- U. o「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 5 H; _+ {" z# H4 N& O: F
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
- r/ K4 z# D8 u& k0 F$ L9 X+ J* a) s% }$ i' d7 n* v
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
. i: `5 z) ?/ U+ t4 z$ h5 ?( ~! y ; k' s: m; s( }: Q, B6 ?
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，. X: P: a& W- A% [" @& \1 n- O
因此铜板较容易出现正面。! \ e8 F( D$ o, K, {& i
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ) \6 _8 o0 x O0 d. n
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。% u8 a" `# y2 { b
心想赢定了。! i r$ X |$ J3 U+ R$ z0 c
7 b" i. i: ^0 G' P# \) l7 F' U
没想到开始不到半刻钟，
6 A) X! r; _; z2 ~9 H( w6 f2 Q' V! E赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
: Z8 S) ]9 f4 G4 B- p
+ N! [# P& c- n$ n0 K$ D' _' Q2 R赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，& I9 d9 L) o* Z/ T1 x) x
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
) Y' [ n+ o: U. W- R
5 y4 {1 d& i0 S: ^( q8 @: H" `/ z: y赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
$ M9 Y$ D: s9 t5 Y" o他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
2 y5 m' l6 K2 g# w2 G- `4 A7 {" Z9 h8 c
上帝回答道：( ], t: k( M* H8 t3 l. l# E
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
2 A: s' P: t& ?1 m「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
4 N K" o* |( e7 w/ Q「而不是先发生在我身上。」' s. h, Y6 h' ?$ {; U" ^7 c
. F0 x3 g) d+ G; ~! s 赌徒恍然大悟，
; y: ?4 d, _6 |/ L3 y' o原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
" n# t5 l% b) y j/ y4 Y竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！6 x9 i& @+ R* v: O' ^
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」* a' E ~1 n7 x
上帝说完便不见踪影。 $ R1 E+ q5 N3 {
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
# `% X) t. E, \3 A4 Z o若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，7 {! l4 p3 \0 `; t
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，. ^/ H' [% d5 u' Y+ o
对赌徒十分有利。
: _, O* b: A# p/ q8 M 5 ^3 } e% N9 Q& v; l" t: Y, Z
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
( c, W$ m7 w+ p. U0 G在还没掷到1000次之前，
7 p o% d3 h" s6 ?/ f仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
" l6 ~! L4 r2 O
7 n/ G9 V' Z0 Z$ H. M' j0 t4 V6 u 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。+ X, Q3 P8 M/ V, F/ f
/ Z! g1 N- G. _ 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
; n5 H3 F/ o2 e: e
6 h* ] t; Y" C0 U2 D& o 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，+ E, W" i( C, @* V/ R) u: a8 k
& z, [4 e* H$ h% t8 n3 B4 \
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ + w( o) `9 r- } ]
' o" B$ |7 ~. X* U1 x0 L* }
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