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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
7 {1 {+ B. T' s$ D9 L% l8 m1 v2 |; R' G! }
其实原文标题不是这样的
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$ u0 u- R* X1 B这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!$ k8 l5 }: B% V& k/ x+ @( c$ d
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
" J: Z. c, c! T他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
3 R2 Y5 N, |4 W* }5 [! b
( n4 U8 h1 P: A5 p2 b3 @2 m9 W 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
$ X7 _' a4 Y; b
2 }9 o# f/ z2 @5 t# A1 ^ 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
; h0 ~& l2 i5 z2 R) d' M
% d* e! P) M% y( y「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 ) }5 r% S- G2 n
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」+ ?9 ^, I/ V' [) z( c5 ^( e! q
* v" X; |2 s: u+ N+ U/ P# D+ [& d
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
- P$ I* o/ y8 _9 c- }5 }: k0 { & H, J+ n0 k' z5 B, B* L% }* K* v6 y
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
1 p, x8 z. u& W- X5 N因此铜板较容易出现正面。# o8 y8 S; @$ w& S# a. X
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 9 q( { S) x$ a4 v. q$ s2 t1 ~
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。5 I2 v0 q* j7 T: ^( X( a
心想赢定了。
( |* m* `) h" P- Y
2 t- r5 L- q. @1 }, h" J F, ?没想到开始不到半刻钟，; Y; {! A! D1 ?7 f
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」# {- X) `. A7 y" Z& o! Z4 r6 b
, g7 P4 e) Q6 }$ }3 R% V
赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
6 z* w6 ]# v" M+ |& q# [+ d3 ~但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
" h5 m' w* q3 Y6 g
# }7 F$ C; x; j. \赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?, O' X. \8 m" i. T5 v _% _
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 1 Y8 u- [. X3 l2 o
上帝回答道：
5 g9 u6 C( L7 _- L3 a) b2 ?「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」9 t1 \; \* U: A) Z8 T& h9 H
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」: |+ v+ d, q1 K" r) t* g% i
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
! I5 i, G) _- ~6 e9 F
" I' Y; V2 ~& \+ w9 f$ B 赌徒恍然大悟，0 |. ?6 Q* j' z, O; U
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，: `. k0 E5 @) c3 m" n$ E
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！% {0 _) ]% q, R. f) W
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
' z% [: ?! h+ X0 V上帝说完便不见踪影。
9 J% c' }* q9 f& d b% M( t
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
. _& z7 [" B1 h/ Z3 q, K若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
# a$ Z6 R& q# b, s1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
6 G `6 \& ^. O对赌徒十分有利。4 S; O' W3 D0 J7 A$ W2 }; x$ \- }
$ [$ F& i3 [- r* X( _但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
' C4 \( g- o( u在还没掷到1000次之前， S' p, }- h8 H0 F4 n7 X1 o
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。! V- l5 j( F* l: K i* x
# H" E- d( S9 e' k; q1 C) H0 Q 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。" i5 e+ o0 Z! X$ O/ n
6 Q+ j) m1 r, J! E7 b7 X
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。9 g& E( e4 k* s5 s4 f$ c9 ~% e
: c* x) M4 `$ f. B' ^, N, j
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
0 O* }- D& [ V2 B8 m" z" l# o# U3 N, W! P6 s$ P) s0 R
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ * d; H4 `, X/ m" f' Z" r% b
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